The Wilton Market Report, October 19, 2016

One of the subscribers to the New Canaan Market Report for October asked for a Wilton report.

There is no such thing. So, I am going to write one right here, right now. First, here is a chart of the amount of inventory in Wilton over the last five years. With the exception of spikes in the beginning of 2012 and again in 2016 it would appear we are at more normal levels of 9-15 months of inventory.

Next, we look at the number of Sales and the Dollar Volume of Sales. They should track along together and for the most part they do. The fact that the Dollar Volume is lagging the Number of Sales this year tells me that the volume of lower priced homes has accounted for most of the activity in 2016.

I think Wilton represents great value in comparison to New Canaan, Westport, Darien and Greenwich. If you assume the schools are equal the difference in price should correspond to the higher taxes and longer commute to New York City. Historically that has accounted for a 40% (or less) difference in values. However, currently the Wilton market is selling at a 45% discount to the New Canaan and Darien markets.

Consider 2008 when New Canaan was $1.4 million to $853,000 in Wilton, a 39% difference.

Consider 2012 when New Canaan was $1.23 million to $713,000 in Wilton, a 43% difference.

Now, New Canaan is currently at $1.36 million to $746,000 in Wilton, a 45% difference.

Zillow is projecting New Canaan to move to $1.38 million and Wilton to $754,000, a 45% difference.

The October Market Report for New Canaan

Friends,

There has been plenty of hand-wringing this year about the state of the local real estate market, much of it justified. Sales volume dropped and prices were slow to react. 

An article in last month's Atlantic Magazine attributed a soft suburban market throughout the northeast to the fact that we aren't supplying what buyers want, particularly young buyers. The Atlantic seems to think that Millenials don't want the suburban lifestyle any longer. They're moving to the cities where they can always catch an Uber. 

The article goes on to cite county and state statistics which show median prices about 20% down from the 2003 high. 

Summary Statistics For Houses, Two Years

However, New Canaan has fared better than most. This summer was pretty slow, but average and median prices had been holding firm through summer. As I mentioned above, this Fall we are now beginning to see seller's reductions of between 5% and 12% in response to the slowing sales volume. We now have 18 months of inventory on hand heading into the slower winter months, up from 14 months a year ago. 

Zillow shows the New Canaan market values as down only one percent since last year. They are predicting the New Canaan market is poised to rise nearly one percent next year.

Zillow's New Prediction is a Rising Market

July and August were not pretty for New Canaan. You can see in the chart below that sales held steady through May, began the decline in June and dropped 40% in July and 50% in August when compared to 2015. This was not unexpected based on the dwindling number of pendings recorded in June, but it has been a wakeup call for many of us nonetheless.

5 Years of N.C. House Sales

In fact, pending sales were down in June (-58%) and July (-30%) but set a new low in August (-79%). The trend continued in September with 16 pending sales indicating that we may have not seen the bottom.

Pending is not the only measure of market health. (It's not even a very good one. It really only gives us a peek at sales volume a month or two ahead.) Here is a chart that shows the past 5 years of Sales Volume for Single Family Homes. We see an increase in the volume in September over three of the previous four Septembers. 

5 Years of New Canaan (House) Sales $ Volume

The condo market bounced back this month with 7 sales in September after a disappointing August. The condo market has been negatively affected at times in the last few years by a lack of inventory to satisfy demand, especially under $1 million. We never seem to have enough condos to meet the need. As a result, in the last five years we have seen more new condos built in town than were built in the previous 20 years. New construction on Jeliff Mill Road, Park, Main and Forest Streets as well as The Maples on Oenoke Ridge. Now, with projects planned on Hoyt, Cross and Vitti, the Silvermine Tavern, The Roger Sherman and the Merritt Village we predict the condo market will continue to experience growth over the next decade. This new inventory is coming online as a great range of buyers begin to seek the price point and convenience that condos offer.

5 Years of New Canaan (Condo) Sales

The big story for 2016 is the number of listings (of single family homes). Everybody is asking have we seen the peak? Yes, with 297 homes on the market now, down from a high of 360, we have seen the peak for 2016. 

Number of Listings Over the Last Year

Below is a link to the New Canaan Market Report. If you would like to discuss the report, or if you have any other questions, feel free to contact us at 203-247-4700 (John) or 203-247-5999 (Susan).  

Best regards,          

John and Susan

Pioneers of Design and Architecture in New Canaan: Eliot Noyes, Brad Verbryke, Ernest Bevilacqua and Bob Graf in an internal meeting to discuss Mobil Oil, c.1968. We have listed Bob Graf's own home, designed in 1966, at 62 Moriarity Drive in Wilton.

click to read the original article

Top 10 Reasons New Canaan is Unique

1. 44 miles to New York City. New Canaan has exits from the Merritt Parkway service New Canaan making it convenient to all areas of town. No other town in Fairfield County has this kind of access to the parkway which is a much better commute than I-95 because there are no trucks.

Empty Seats: The Train Starts Here

2. Next Station to Heaven. In New Canaan your seat is waiting. Metro North trains start and end in New Canaan. 66 minutes express to Grand Central versus 57 in Darien. The train is waiting in the morning with assured seating and returns you to the village at night. Truly a unique arrangement. The folks in Darien and Westport will brag that the "main line" has more trains but who cares if you can never get a seat on the train?  

3. Schools. We have the top school system in the state and New Canaan has been called by Forbes Magazine one of the top 3 in the country for towns in which the average home costs more that  $800,000. Niche Magazine rates us number 2 in Connecticut. Unlike other rankings which use AP data as the sole datapoint, Niche's methodology includes grading for academics (50%), health and safety (10%), student culture and diversity (10%), survey responses(10%), teachers, (10%) resources and facilities (5%), extracurriculars (2.5%) and sports/fitness(2.5%). This methodology appears to be a more well-rounded, holistic approach to ranking.

New Canaan graduates 98% and the average SAT is 1910

4. Taxes. Four towns distinguish themselves with low taxes: Darien ($15,350), Greenwich ($11,270), New Canaan ($15,980) and Westport ($18,260).  The numbers represent the taxes paid on a $1.428 million house in each town last year. New Canaan enjoys one of the lowest tax rates in the county yet maintains excellent services for all our residents. Compared to Wilton ($26,830), Fairfield ($24,790), Stamford ($25,430) and Ridgefield ($26,010) these four just present better value for the real estate dollar. Compared to a comparable home in Bronxville ($42,300) the New Canaan taxes are a bargain.

5. Village. The charming village is our pride and joy and clearly sets us apart from other towns which share our demographics. Our town center is free of the traffic of US-1 and so affords all the ability to walk, shop, dine and enjoy the unique ambience. School children can be seen walking down South Avenue toward town after school.

6. Restaurants. We're the destination of choice for fine dining in the county. According to Trip Advisor we have 37 ranging from Indian to Asian and from American to the Farmer's Table. We host to the #1 ranked Asian/Fusion restaurant Connecticut, Ching's Table. Because New Canaan is so centrally located in Fairfield County we can reach most restaurants in surrounding towns too, bringing about 200 choices within a five mile radius. My new favorite watering hole? The tea house at Grace Farms. You heard it here first.

7. Clubs. The Country Club of New Canaan, the Lake Club and Field Club for summer sports and paddle, The Winter Club for hockey and skating, Racquet Club for indoor tennis and the YMCA which is one of the finest in the country.

8. Waveny Park and Other Town Assets. Designed by the landscape architect Frederick Law Olmstead, renowned for designing Central Park, Waveny boasts over 250 acres of woods, meadows and running trails as well as sports fields, paddle tennis courts, Carriage Art Barn, The Powerhouse Theater, Lapham Community Center and Spencer's Run, New Canaan's off-leash dog park. Our Town Pool is only a few years old, now heated and located in Waveny and is a recent addition to our wonderful town facilities.Mead Memorial Park with baseball fields, playground, and snack bar, Kiwanis Park boasts a large swimming pond, playground and snack bar, Irwin Park has 36 acres and features a newly designed and surfaced trail for jogging/walking/biking. Some of these facilities require permits which are available at the Recreation Department in Waveny Park.

John Engel at the River Building

9. The Arts and Architecture. No other town in Fairfield County can boast having a world-class art destination and we have two. Since 2007 Philip Johnson's architectural masterpiece, The Glass House has been open to the public (with a reservation) from May through November. And now, as of last year, The River Building at Grace Farms, designed by the prestigious Japanese architecture firm SANAA, is open to the public year round. Don't take my word for it. Read the recent articles in Travel & Leisure, the New York Times and over 40 other publications raving about this building, calling it "the coolest building in Connecticut"

But its not just the presence of these two famous buildings. New Canaan was the home of the Harvard Five and other notable architects of the midcentury modern movement in architecture. Together they built about 90 distinctively modern homes in New Canaan in the 50's and 60's and those homes are an important part of our community. See the video.

School Spirit: The Annual Turkey Bowl Football Game 

10. Community Spirit. From Christmas Caroling on God's Acre to our Memorial Day Parade down Main Street, to the Ice Cream Social at the Historical Society and our spectacular 4th of July celebration complete with fireworks at Waveny Park, we above all share the guiding belief that all are welcome. While young families move in, our baby boomers and seniors seem to be staying on, making our community rich in its diversity.

VIDEO: Susan Engel and the "Mad Men" Style of 62 Moriarity in Wilton

https://www.halstead.com/propertv?wm_video_id=fo06fdd7a15m3i

VIDEO: Matthew and John Show the Active Side of 16 Ravenglass Drive in Stamford CT

Lakeside, set in 74 acres with pool and tennis court, this charming Hampton Shingle style home exudes relaxation. Sit on your generous wrap-around verandah looking across sweeping lawns to the lake. Walk the dog on a nature trail or in cooler months enjoy your crackling fire, this 4 bedroom, 1 year old home is exactly what you need to enjoy life. In an exclusive gated community, you are minutes from an historic tavern, country market, country club and the Merritt.


https://www.halstead.com/sale/ct/stamford/16-ravenglass-drive/house/99140235#

VIDEO: Matthew and John Show the Active Side of 16 Ravenglass Drive in Stamford CT

Lakeside, set in 74 acres with pool and tennis court, this charming Hampton Shingle style home exudes relaxation. Sit on your generous wrap-around verandah looking across sweeping lawns to the lake. Walk the dog on a nature trail or in cooler months enjoy your crackling fire, this 4 bedroom, 1 year old home is exactly what you need to enjoy life. In an exclusive gated community, you are minutes from an historic tavern, country market, country club and the Merritt.


https://www.halstead.com/sale/ct/stamford/16-ravenglass-drive/house/99140235#

The June Market Report - Real estate is a tug of war...

Richmond Hill Condo $754,000 new listing, under $1mm 29 Maple Street condo  $799,000 high-style, new wow price      Pride's Crossing $888,000 walk to town, under $1mm  108 Toby's Lane $1.295    NEW PRICE riverfront retreat 151 East Avenue $1.368   new listing, top-flight condo Windermere On the Lake $1.649 private 80 acre gated community  7 Canaan Close   $1.68 temporarily off the market 76 Sturbridge Hill Rd $1.599 2 acres, 5 beds, pool, new price The Noyes-Graf House $1.780  as seen in WSJ Mansions section today, to be featured in the New York Times 106 Logan Road   $1.799 NEW PRICE, beautiful 242 Wahackme Rd. $3.40 Nantucket style and great pool 31 Deacon's Way $3.88 superb new listing 227 Lambert Road  $4.780 a romantic estate, new price! 31 Deacon's Way rental $16,000 2 acres next to Country School, new listing: $1,000,000 Fellow real estate fans, Real estate is a tug of war between the buyers and the sellers. Sometimes the sellers give in and the market drops. Sometimes they hold out and buyers get tired of waiting pull the trigger. We are in the middle of that tug of war right now. Sellers are stubborn. Buyers are looking, but they are waiting. That is why we have so much inventory in a market with solid volume and strong prices. The New Canaan Advertiser asked me this week to comment on their statement, "Buyers are highly selective but things are moving. Sellers need to be on their game with a home priced right and or turnkey ready." Ok, we've taken each of those comments and reflected on it below. "Highly selective" is a function of ample inventory. Buyers think with choices they should be able to drive a bargain. That isn't necessarily so. On average prices are holding up. Volume is steady. If you look at the graph below you see that houses are selling 96% of their final asking price, and 93% of their original asking price. I have been involved in 3 bidding wars this season ranging from below $1 million to nearly $4 million and in every case the buyers needed the affirmation of other buyers to inspire confidence and stimulate bidding action. In the cases where there is no second bidder we see buyers lose interest and move on.     "Things are moving" is also true. New Canaan's volume of sales (68) is exactly the average of the last ten years sales (68.9) of single family homes. The same is true for condos. We've sold 17 condos this year vs. 15 last year and 20 two years ago and the average over ten years is 17.3   "Home priced right" is key. Many of the currently listed homes were priced "fairly" based on tax assessor, Zillow, and other available date. But, in this market it takes a house priced sharply to cut through the clutter. There are roughly 15 houses for sale in the $1.5, $1.6 and $1.7 million categories. 5 of each of these will sell this year. To be one of those sales you must have a scarce feature or be priced under the market. I ask my sellers "how badly do you want to be one of those 5 sales this year?"   There are a few sales this year that dramatically illustrate that point. One, beautifully built in 2006, sold then for $5.6 million. It was listed for that same $5.6 million in 2014. After two years on the market it was just reduced to $3.995 and sold this month for $3.3 causing many to say this was a great bargain. That's 59% of its high, but 80% of where the tax assessor had it pegged. "Home priced right" is sometimes a function of how much time you have to wait for the market to come back. Should we evaluate the market based on the 2007 high? The average sale price in New Canaan for the first 5 months is $1,875,000, a dip of only 1.7% versus $1,908,000 for the first 5 months of 2015. However, Average can be manipulated with a few large sales. Taking the more reliable Median pricing over the last 10 years we see that New Canaan is actually climbing fairly steadily, up 30% since the dip in 2009. Finally, "turnkey ready" is also important. Many of our buyers are coming from New York and beyond and often don't have the time, the additional financing, or the experience to take on major renovations right away. They are focused on easing the transition into a new community, not wringing the last ounces of value out of a "fixer-upper". In a seller's market buyers are sometimes willing to take on a fixer-upper. Or, when banks were able and more willing to lend against improvements we saw home equity and construction loans. Now, those improvements are a seller's burden. Some of my motivated sellers are adding central air conditioning and replacing aged heating systems anticipating these objections. At least two of my sellers hired a building inspector before putting their houses on the market in order to repair any defects and not lose a sale over condition. New Canaan single family home inventory has increased 4% from 332 to 346. We had predicted a June peak of 370 in our February Market Report but that might be too high because while pending sales are down the number of new listings has also slowed to only 58 from a more typical 92. Let's break it down... Fairfield County Sales: The number of sales is up 7.4% across the county with four out of six town posting gains. Wilton remains flat for the year with 65 sales and New Canaan is the only town down, -8.1%. Prices are flat everywhere with only Westport, (-9.5%) posting a change of more than 2.4%.  New Canaan Pending Sales: is our best forward-looking indicator. Looking at the first quarter we saw the beginning of a decreasing trend in Pending Sales from 43 to 34. That number should be rising to 68. Looking only at the month of May we saw a 37% decline in Pendings which brought us to a five month decline of 44%. This remains concerning and something to watch.  Below is a link to the New Canaan June Market Report. If you would like to discuss the report, or if you have any other questions, feel free to contact us at 203-247-4700 (John) or 203-247-5999 (Susan).   Best regards,           John and Susan     Pioneers of Design and Architecture in New Canaan: Eliot Noyes, Brad Verbryke, Ernest Bevilacqua and Bob Graf in an internal meeting to discuss Mobil Oil, c.1968. This week we have listed Bob Graf's own home, designed in 1966.  click here for the market report \