The Heat Map for New Canaan Neighborhood Change Analysis (based on the 2018 Revaluation)

This is the heat map produced by Tighe & Bond for the Town of New Canaan as part of their most recent revaluation, October 2018. (Email me for the original PDF which will allow you to zoom into a particular property.)

My purpose in uploading this map is because it should be a public document and a tool for decision-making. Homeowners, their realtors, town officials and elected leaders need to understand which parts of our town are experiencing the greatest changes in valuation if we are going to debate why the changes are occurring and whether we want to use the tools available (zoning regulations, ordinances, the TEDAC) to make changes.

- Why was the area immediately north of the country club affected more than any other?

- Does lack of cell service affect value? Does proximity to town or to the Talmade Hill station?

- East and West school districts look to be affected equally, and more so than the South school district

- Prides Crossing, Hatfield Mews and 10 other properties stand out with more than 10% gains. Why?

The following chart provided in the revaluation presentation references 23 different neighborhoods in New Canaan. But, there was no corresponding chart showing which neighborhood is which.

Here are the original neighborhood maps from Tighe & Bond provided to New Canaan around 2000. They may have been updated since that time but nobody seems to have a more updated copy.

Chairman's View: Spoiler Alert (April 11, 2019)

Chairman’s View: Spoiler alert

APRIL 11, 2019 BY JOHN ENGEL, CHAIRMAN, TOWN COUNCIL

Spoiler alert: I really like New Canaan’s prospects.

Here are five observations taken from the revaluation, the Town budget, the State election, and the first quarter real estate sales. There is a happy ending.

1. The uncertainty coming from Hartford is probably worse than anything Hartford will actually do to us. We accept a certain amount of pain is coming and we adjust. But when house-hunters from New York say, “I heard the New Canaan train is going away” or “What’s going on with your schools?” we know the headlines are worse than the reality will ever be.

2. New Canaan government is working leaner and smarter. Our budget went down .43%, the greatest cut in a decade, while improving services. We built new playgrounds, turf fields and gas lines while putting solar on town roofs. Our roads will be new, and our schools will remain No. 1. Town Hall will sell antique buildings and find a way to co-invest in the world-class library our residents want. Progress is being made on parking, senior and affordable housing and improved cell service. It’s a great time to live right here.

3. The Waveny Conservancy, Land Trust, Library and Athletic Foundation are examples of the high-energy volunteer organizations we have in New Canaan restoring treasures like Waveny Pond with donations, paying it forward.

4. New Canaan real estate is stable. First quarter house sales are up 20 percent with average prices in the $1.3 millions, (same as 2012-13 and same as Darien). New Canaan is drawing buyers out of Westchester and New York City. (If we speed up the trains, wow, the landscape shifts more dramatically in our favor.) Why is the market recovering from the bottom-up? Because 75 million Baby Boomers are trying to sell their houses to 66 million GenXers (like me, late 30s to early 50s), and there are just not enough of us. Be patient. There are 83 million Millennials (23 to 38 years old) who are starting to discover that Texas and San Francisco are expensive. They have to live somewhere. Why not here? We are downright cheap.

5. New Canaan’s downtown is healthy with less than a 5 perent vacancy rate. A few years ago vacancies were lower and rents unaffordable. Rents are attractive again. P&Z and the new Tourism & Economic Development Committee are responding to changes in the market, giving us the flexibility New Canaan needs to compete in a changing retail environment. Developers respond with exciting new projects all over town. The Grand List is growing again. Consider the new developments built or planned for downtown: Pine Street Concessions, Oxygen, The Merritt Village, a new Post Office, a new Merrill Lynch, new mixed-use on Forest, Locust, Cross and Vitti streets. Soon look to the corner of South and Elm and for more development on Pine Street to keep the next station to heaven vibrant.

Change is hard. For a town of steady habits that fears change New Canaan is adapting well, improving in so many ways, poised to compete for the next decade and beyond.

John Engel is chairman of the Town Council. Chairman’s View represents the views of the chairman and not necessarily any other council members.

Chairman's View: Picking Priorities (Dec. 6, 2018)

Chairman’s View: Picking priorities

DECEMBER 6, 2018 BY JOHN ENGEL. CHAIRMAN, TOWN COUNCIL

“I do have to pick my priorities. Nobody can do everything.” — Ray Kurzweil

We held the first joint offsite meeting among the four funding bodies (Board of Selectmen, Town Council, Board of Education, Board of Finance) in over 10 years, an important step toward approaching our town and school budgets with a spirit of cooperation.

Critical takeaways: 10 of us think that the budget is driven by the Board of Finance, 10 believe we all share it, and nine votes were scattered among Town Council, Board of Education and Board of Selectmen. It’s a shared responsibility but clearly, the BOF is driving the bus. Most of us believe that the budget should come in at an increase of between 0% and 1% this year, a big change since last year’s debates between 2% and 3.5%. We agreed a joint meeting should bookend the budget process every year: November and May. And, support was nearly unanimous for conducting a professional town-wide survey.

We had our last forum on town buildings in April. It is time to listen again. The Town Council is scheduling a public hearing for Wednesday, Jan. 9, to solicit input from the public and discuss our buildings within the context of the 5-year Capital Plan. Why is it necessary and why now? In April the focus was on preservation of important buildings and the need to decrease building expenses. There have been several articles over the last six months floating different possibilities for the Library, the repurposing or demolishing of Irwin House, purchasing the Covia Building, renovating the old Police Station (or repurposing it as housing), selling the Vine Cottage and renting the Outback. These options are interrelated and now we know the costs. Some of these initiatives should be put in the Capital Plan and others removed. We need to get serious and specific about our priorities and make sure they are accurately reflected in the Capital Plan and this year’s budget, reflecting the towns people’s appetite.

The Library was put in the 5-Year Capital Plan for $5 million by First Selectman Robert Mallozzi. It would help the Library board secure additional private funding and allow them to “think big” if we put the Library in the plan for $10 million. That is incredibly hard to do during the revaluation, but if we were to plan for a matching gift, 2-1 behind private donations, and stretch that commitment from three years to potentially five years it works within current Board of Finance guidance. I believe a $10 million earmark has the support from the majority of the selectmen and Town Council. If the Library cannot raise $20 million then Town Hall is not committed. But, by signaling a cap of $5 million in the capital plan, the Board of Finance is essentially killing the project. If you feel strongly that a new library will be transformational to the health of our downtown, let the Town Council and Board of Finance know.

Chairman's View: Revaluation (Dec. 20, 2018)

Chairman’s View: Revaluation

DECEMBER 20, 2018 BY JOHN ENGEL. CHAIRMAN, TOWN COUNCIL

New Canaan’s real estate grand list fell by $570 million (7.15%) compared to 2017.In the recent revaluation:

• 4,861 parcels saw average decreases of 11%.
• 2,308 saw average increases of 13%.
• For homes worth more than $3 million, the average decrease was 14%.
• For $2 million to $3 million homes, the average decrease was 10%.
• For $1 million to $2 million homes, the average decrease was 7%.

Homes less than $1 million saw an average increase of 1%. Multifamily homes decreased 4%. Commercial properties increased an average of 13%. Condominiums increased 9%. 

We will not know what the new mill rate is and the new taxes are until the MuniVal consultation period is complete (this week and first week of January), then the Board of Assessment appeals process is complete (February) and then the (town and school) budget process ends with the Town Council vote April 4, 2019. 

If your revaluation is factually wrong then schedule a meeting this week for early January with MuniVal, the revaluation company and correct the facts (203-292-5500 or newcanaanreval@munival.com). If unsuccessful, then you must appeal in person to the Board of Assessment Appeals with facts about your house and comparable sales that occurred between Oct 1, 2017 and Oct 1, 2018. Appointments are given February 1 to 20 and the appeals take place in March. Sales that fall outside of that 1-year window are considered but carry less weight. 

After the 2013 revaluation the Board of Assessment Appeals increased two assessments and reduced 187 of the 285 appeals filed. Some homeowners appeal alone, others take a Realtor or an attorney. Some attorneys charge by the hour. Others work on contingency, taking a percentage of a successful appeal. If an appeal process is unsuccessful, the recourse is a lawsuit. Five years ago, 13 homeowners filed lawsuits against the town. Two were subsequently withdrawn. It takes three or four years to resolve a lawsuit.

Assuming health care rises 5%, town salaries rise 2.8%, school salaries 2.2% and $2.5 million comes from the general fund I expect expenses to increase 1.47% with “level services” and 1.86% if we follow Board of Finance guidance. Therefore, the mill rate announced in May will be between 18.61 and 18.69. That’s up 10% from 16.96.  A homeowner’s revaluation would have to decrease 9% in order to see a drop in taxes. To calculate your 2019 taxes multiply .01862 by your new valuation. (The spreadsheet is posted at johnengel.com).

Darien is revaluing now. Their assessor predicted most revaluations within 3% or 4% of their previous valuation. He expects the Darien mill rate to remain close to their current 16.08 rate. Wilton, now at 28.19, will send out revaluation letters in early January. Ridgefield’s grand list rose one half of one percent in their February 2018 revaluation, a 28.78 mill rate. Westport’s mill rate has been flat at 16.86 for 2 years and they won’t revalue until 2020. New Canaan experienced a 3% drop in the 2013 (reval) grand list but gained 1% in most years since (up $84 million, $85 million, $81 million, then $51 million in 2017).

Chairman's View: Revaluation and the Condo Market (Feb. 28, 2019)

Chairman’s View: Revaluation and the condo market

FEBRUARY 28, 2019 BY JOHN ENGEL, CHAIRMAN, TOWN COUNCIL

Condominiums rose 9% in value in a 5-year total revaluation that was down 7.19% The average condo owner will see a double-digit increase in their taxes, Specifically, 955 condos will see average increases in taxes of $1,137. Many condo owners are upset. They’re organizing behind their condo presidents saying this is a regressive tax on our seniors and demanding that something be done.

What are our options? New Canaan could have asked the State to throw out the entire revaluation if we had a basis to do so. Or, we can follow the process, appealing assessments individually. Four hundred and ten people have filed appeals, a bit more than f years ago (285), but a little lower than 10 (419) or 15 years ago (421).

Here’s the math: In 2013 47 condos sold at an average price of $798,807 and a median of $760,000. The high end was supporting the market with five sales above $1.2 million in 2013 and six sales over $1.2 million in 2012.

In 2018, 46 condos sold averaging, $778,962 and a median of $690,000. We had only one sale above $1.2 million last year. The high-end of the condo market is struggling. Not so at the bottom end, where demand is strong and prices on a per-foot basis constant.

In 2018 condos sold for $417 per foot and 1.56 times their assessments. Contrast this with five years ago, when they sold for $420 per foot and only 1.32 times their assessments. That multiple of assessment is the key. They are selling for a greater multiple versus their assessments. Their assessments had to catch up. Contrast that 1.56 multiple with houses, which are selling at 1.26 times their assessments.

Why are condos selling? It’s a relatively inexpensive way to buy into the New Canaan school system. And, Darien has far fewer condominiums, only about one-quarter the number we have in New Canaan. In contrast to the single-family house market, the condo market is remarkably consistent, four sales per month for the last 10 years, the result of continued demand for workforce housing, entry-level families and downsizing seniors for only 13% of our housing stock.

Munival, based out of Fairfield, (for $222,000) was New Canaan’s choice instead of choosing Ryan or Vision, both out of Massachusetts. Munival also works for Greenwich, Stamford and Norwalk. Darien chose Munis/Tyler Technologies for about the same price, $209,900 (but without a full inspection on their commercial)

Condos are in demand faster than they are being built, prices on less expensive condos are rising, and if we don’t like that we should ask ourselves if our zoning laws adequately address an affordable condominium solution for the next 10 years. That’s the tool we can use. In my professional opinion as a Realtor and based on these values, the current re-valuation is accurate.

The opinions expressed in Chairman’s View are those of Chairman John Engel and not necessarily those of other Town Council members.

Chairman's View: Spoiler Alert. I Like New Canaan's Prospects (April 11, 2019)

Spoiler alert. I really like New Canaan’s prospects. Here are 5 observations taken from the revaluation, the town budget, the state election, and the first quarter real estate sales. There is a happy ending.

1. The uncertainty coming from Hartford is probably worse than anything Hartford will actually do to us. We accept a certain amount of pain is coming and we adjust. But when house-hunters from New York say, “I heard the New Canaan train is going away” or “What’s going on with your schools?” we know the headlines are worse than the reality will ever be. 

2. New Canaan government is working leaner and smarter. Our budget went down .43%, the greatest cut in a decade while improving services. We built new playgrounds, turf fields and gas lines while putting solar on town roofs. Our roads will be new, and our schools will remain #1. Town Hall will sell antique buildings and find a way to co-invest in the world-class library our residents want. Progress is being made on parking, senior & affordable housing and improved cell service. It’s a great time to live right here.

3. The Waveny Conservancy, Land Trust, Library and Athletic Foundation are examples of the high-energy volunteer organizations we have in New Canaan restoring treasures like Waveny Pond with donations, paying it forward.

4. New Canaan real estate is stable. First quarter house sales are up 20% with average prices in the $1.3’s, (same as 2012-2013 & same as Darien). New Canaan is drawing buyers out of Westchester and NYC. (If we speed up the trains, wow, the landscape shifts more dramatically in our favor.) Why is the market recovering from the bottom-up?  75 million Baby Boomers are trying to sell their houses to 66 million GenX’ers (like me, late 30’s to early 50’s) and there are just not enough of us. Be patient. There are 83 million Millennials (23-38 yrs old) who are starting to discover that Texas and San Francisco are expensive. They have to live somewhere. Why not here? We are downright cheap.

5. New Canaan’s downtown is healthy with less than a 5% vacancy rate. A few years ago vacancies were lower and rents unaffordable. Rents are attractive again. P&Z and the new Tourism & Economic Development Commission are responding to changes in the market, giving us the flexibility New Canaan needs to compete in a changing retail environment. Developers respond with exciting new projects all over town. The Grand List is growing again. Consider the new developments built or planned for downtown: Pine Street Concessions, Oxygen, The Merritt Village, a new Post Office, a new Merrill Lynch, new mixed-use on Forest, Locust, Cross and Vitti Streets. Soon look to the corner of South & Elm and for more development on Pine Street to keep the next station to heaven vibrant.

Change is hard. For a town of steady habits that fears change New Canaan is adapting well, improving in so many ways, poised to compete for the next decade and beyond.

Letter to the Editor: Second Opinion Needed on Reval (March 7, 2019)

Letter: Second opinion needed on reval

MARCH 7, 2019 BY LASZLO PAPP 

Editor, Advertiser:

In his biweekly column in the Advertiser, Chairman John Engel suggested that nothing is wrong with the condo revaluation, but rather he questions if our zoning laws “adequately address an affordable condominium solution.” Having more than 30 years of involvement with our zoning laws, I can state that the Planning & Zoning Commission did and does exactly that. If I may go back a few years: In the 1970s P&Z noticed that the two-family zone does not satisfy the needs and requirements of the citizens. We introduced a cluster zoning, called “Alternate Development” which than evolved into multifamily, later also to apartment zoning. This was the very first “condo” zoning in the area, later followed by other towns.

Back to Mr. Engel’s argument that “the current revaluation is accurate”. He quotes valid statistics that 2018 condos sold for $417 per foot,versus $420 per foot five years ago. This means that in 5 years average condo prices went down 1% and not up 8% to 10% as the revaluation stated. This is very close to the real estate report that the average condo sales price of $ 807,604 in 2014 went down to $ 778,962 in 2018. This proves that the condo revaluation is anything but “accurate.”

What we need is a “second opinion” for a fair condominium valuation!

Laszlo Papp

TOWN OF NEW CANAAN PRESS RELEASE TOWN COUNCIL APPROVES FY2020 BUDGET OF $150.94 MILLION -- DECREASE OF 0.43% IS THE LOWEST IN LAST 10 YEARS FUNDS TO BE RAISED BY TAXES DECLINES 0.56% -- FIRST DECLINE IN MORE THAN 10 YEARS

The Town Council on April 4th approved a Total Expenditure Budget of $150.94 million

for fiscal year 2019-20, representing a decrease of 0.43% over the current fiscal year’s amended

budget expenditure of $151.58 million. This is the first decline in more than a decade. The

funds to be raised by taxation declined to $139.23 million from the current year’s $140.02

million, a decrease of 0.56% -- the first decline in more than 10 years.

The Town Council budget will be filed in the office of the Town Clerk and will become

effective eight days after publication unless a notice of intent to file a petition for a referendum

has been filed in the office of the Town Clerk within seven days after publication (Town Charter

Sections C4-13 and C4-14).

The Total Expenditure Budget includes Board of Education operating expenses of $91.43

(up 1.86 %) , Town department operating expenses of $39.92 million (up 0.56 %), debt service

of $16.84 million (down 9.29 %), and tax-funded capital projects of $1.73 million (down 40.32

%). To fund this budget, the amount to be raised from taxation is $139,230,687 (down 0.56%).

“We have much to be thankful for. Town leadership really came together to deliver the

tightest budget in over a decade, one which accurately reflects our priorities as a town: the #1

school system and among the lowest taxes in what most experts agree is still the best place to

live in Connecticut,” said Town Council Chairman John Engel.

The Town Council’s budget takes into account the 2018 Revaluation as of October 1,

2018 where the town’s 2018 Grand List declined 7.64% to $7.71 billion from the 2017 Grand

List of $8.34 billion. The decline in the grand list was primarily due to lower valuations of homes

valued at more than $2 million. The overall average decrease in residential property values was

7.2%. Commercial properties increased on average 10.8 %.

The reduction in the Grand List will result in an increase in the mill rate from the current

16.960 to an estimated 18.259. The final mill rate to be set by the Board of Finance on April 9.

Attached is Board of Finance FY 2019-2020 Budget Summary showing further details of

Town Department and Board of Education (BOE) year-over-year budget changes.

For further information, contact: Lunda Asmani, Budget Director, 203-594-3026.

The New Canaan 2018 Revalution: An Interactive Map of Old and New Property Assessments

Click on any dot to see the revaluation information on that property.
Red dots are properties where the assessment went down.
Green dots are where the assessment went up.
Bigger pins are properties where the assessment changed by more than $1 million.



Credit: Bob Naughton

Contact your realtor to discuss how the revaluation affects you.

Click here to download the excel spreadsheet of valuations on the town website.

Call or text me, John Engel at 203 247 4700, to discuss home values or Susan Engel at 203 247 5999

Chairman's View: Revaluation and a Level Services Budget (Dec 20, 2018)

New Canaan’s real estate grand list fell by $570 million dollars (7.15%) compared to 2017. 4861 parcels saw average decreases of 11%.  2308 saw average increases of 13%. For $3+ million homes the average decrease was 14%. For $2-$3 million homes the average decrease was 10%. For $1-$2 million the average decrease was 7%. Below $1 million saw an average increase of 1%. Multifamily homes decreased 4%. Commercial properties increased an average of 13%. Condominiums increased 9%. 

We will not know what the new mill rate is and the new taxes are until the MuniVal consultation period is complete (this week and first week of January), then the Board of Assessment appeals process is complete (February) and then the (town and school) budget process ends with the Town Council vote April 4, 2019. 

If your revaluation is factually wrong then schedule a meeting this week for early January with MuniVal, the revaluation company and correct the facts (203-292-5500 or newcanaanreval@munival.com). If unsuccessful, then you must appeal in person to the Board of Assessment Appeals with facts about your house and comparable sales that occurred between Oct 1, 2017 and Oct 1, 2018. Appointments are given February 1 to 20 and the appeals take place in March. Sales that fall outside of that 1-year window are considered but carry less weight. 

After the 2013 revaluation the Board of Assessment Appeals increased 2 assessments and reduced 187 of the 285 appeals filed. Some homeowners appeal alone, others take a Realtor or an attorney. Some attorneys charge by the hour. Others work on contingency, taking a percentage of a successful appeal. If an appeal process is unsuccessful, the recourse is a lawsuit. Five years ago thirteen homeowners filed lawsuits against the town. Two were subsequently withdrawn. It takes 3 or 4 years to resolve a lawsuit.

Assuming health care rises 5%, town salaries rise 2.8%, school salaries 2.2% and $2.5 million comes from the general fund I expect expenses to increase 1.47% with “level services” and 1.86% if we follow BOF guidance. Therefore, the mill rate announced in May will be between 18.61 and 18.69. That’s up 10% from 16.96.  A homeowner’s revaluation would have to decrease 9% in order to see a drop in taxes.  To calculate your 2019 taxes multiply .01862 by your new valuation. (The spreadsheet is posted at johnengel.com)

Darien is revaluing now. Their assessor predicted most revaluations within 3% or 4% of their previous valuation. He expects the Darien mill rate to remain close to their current 16.08 rate. Wilton, now at 28.19, will send out revaluation letters in early January. Ridgefield’s grand list rose one half of one percent in their February 2018 revaluation, a 28.78 mill rate. Westport’s mill rate has been flat at 16.86 for 2 years and they won’t revalue until 2020. New Canaan experienced a 3% drop in the 2013 (reval) grand list but gained 1% in most years since (up $84mm, $85mm, $81mm and then $51mm in 2017). 

ASSESSOR'S OFFICE

New 2018 Proposed Assessments

Residential Sales List

Condominium Sales List

Revaluation Company contact: (203) 292-5500 or (855) 686-4825 

Website at www.munival.com/NewCanaan

2018 TOWN WIDE REVALUATION UPDATEReal Property Records Search

2017 Petition to appeal2017 GL Net Top Ten
                                                                                                                                   

Location: Town Hall - 77 Main St 1st floor New Canaan, CT 06840               

Contact: 203-594-3005    Fax Number: 203-594-3130 (Monday - Friday 8:30am - 4:30pm)

Chairman's View: Council Faces Cost of Debt, Capital Projects and Lower Property Values (Oct 4, 2018)

Chairman’s View: Council faces cost of debt, capital projects and lower property values

OCTOBER 4, 2018 BY NEW CANAAN ADVERTISER

A guest column from New Canaan Town Council Chairman John Engel.

New Canaan has the highest per-capita debt in Connecticut at $5,800, double that of Darien because we are a larger town with many more miles of roads and dozens more buildings. Therefore the Board of Finance has presented to the Town Council their recommendation that we reduce our debt service as a percentage of expenses over the next five years from 12% to 10%.

Capital Plan

The Town Council, Board of Education and Board of Finance agreed last year to work on common budget guidance in the fall. Those meetings are still needed. There is a disconnect between current Board of Finance guidance to reduce Town debt service to 10% levels and the new public-private initiatives we read about each week. Your town government needs to have an honest conversation about priorities and scrub the five-year capital plan.

State and local

High net worth taxpayers are continuing to leave Connecticut. The election will have an impact on our budget thinking. We need to vote for a change in our taxes that will have an impact on our budget planning. The latest poll shows Lamont leads Stefanowski by 6 points with a margin of error of 4 points. 40% of Connecticut voters are independent. Stefanowski has gained 6% with unaffiliated this month, but he trails among women by 22%. This race is too close to call.

Congressional elections, transportation  

New Canaan tax base is largely dependent on Wall Street, and it benefited from recent deregulation of the financial sector, federal stimulation and the bull market. But, the latest polls predict a Republican Senate and a Democratic House in Washington. We should anticipate gridlock from a balanced Congress at a time when what New Canaan needs is federal attention on our infrastructure. New Canaan needs multiple good commuting options, particularly faster and more trains. Town leaders are working on the affordable expansion of Talmadge Hill to make more parking available for commuters. This should shorten the waiting lists. I am surprised at how few people are taking advantage of newly available “Boxcar” parking in the St. Aloysius lot. Parking habits are equally slow to change.

2019 Revaluation

The property tax change is a concern for budget planning. In January we will learn that many tax bills will rise between 10% and 20%. Why? The Grand List is predicted to shrink 8% reflecting a reset at the top end of our market and subsequent compression as top tier prices fell and put price pressure throughout the system on lower-priced homes. Those homes will make up the deficit. 

Therefore, the Board of Finance and Town Council must re-evaluate our Tax Relief for Seniors program and its means-testing in light of the coming property tax volatility. We want to retain our seniors as we explore new senior housing options. It’s a small line item but deserves a fresh look.

Chairman's View: Do The Projects that Do Not Increase Debt (Aug 23, 2018)

Chairman’s View: Do the projects that do not increase debt

AUGUST 23, 2018 BY NEW CANAAN TOWN COUNCIL CHAIRMAN JOHN ENGEL

Affordable housing, senior housing, workforce housing are all needed in New Canaan. Should housing be a concern of the Town Council? Yes, repurposing old buildings as housing begins an intricate calculus getting the Town out of the restoration business. Restore buildings to the tax rolls. Sell Vine Cottage.

To borrow from an old joke, “How fast do you need to run to survive a charging bear?” New Canaan Town Council Chairman John Engel

What can we afford? Our assessor will soon announce the Grand List based on this past year’s sales. Values decreased by at least 7% and will probably be offset by a 7% increase in the mill rate. Nobody wants to see the taxes increase from $17,000 to $18,000 on a million dollar assessment, but it is coming. Given that New Canaan’s per capita level of indebtedness is highest in the state and at a ten year high it seems odd that Town Hall is considering any new projects. Some make sense if they don’t increase debt.

Affordable housing. We have a proposal by our Housing Authority and New Canaan Neighborhoods to grow Canaan Parish by 40 units. The objections are aesthetic, not economic, and overblown. The proposal is self-funded from the housing fund and a mortgage in order to maximize efficient use of the property. We need 100 nicer, larger units. Expect this to pass after more public hearings on design details.

Unimin. On the table is a proposal to spend $10 to $12 million purchasing and repurposing the Unimin building as both police station and school administration offices. Consider savings of $3 million from the BOE lease and $7 million in police renovation costs — the math could work. If the economics are even close this is a very good idea. Sell the old police station to a developer for affordable, senior or workforce housing. It’s a natural extension of the Schoolhouse Apartments. It retains seniors. If a private developer cannot make his numbers work maybe our Housing Authority can. The town wins in two ways: we add a much-needed affordable or senior housing choice on walkable South Avenue and we get an efficient office building as offices. Give it a chance.

Parking. Deck the lumberyard? We wanted this when it was estimated at $8 million. Now, decking is estimated at $12 million. At $48,000 per spot it will take 40 years to pay for it. We can’t afford that. We can’t afford to do nothing. Our Grand List depends on reliable transportation and parking. Sell the development rights to the street front of the property to get estimates back under $8 million. Sell the frontage, hide the deck. Decking the Locust Lot at $4,125,000 for 89 spots ($46,348 each) is not viable. Acquire more spots at the Talmadge Hill and Locust lots for half the price of decking. Do this while working the Lumberyard plan.

Chairman's View: Somebody Moved our Cheese, column for July 26, 2018

If you are one of 26 million people who read the book “Who Moved My Cheese?” you know we are at an inflection point here in New Canaan, a moment where we either wring our hands over the good old days or we take stock of the situation and address the change head-on. We find new cheese. New Canaan will continue to be known for great schools, a good commute, green spaces and parks, top cultural attractions and low taxes. But, some things will change:

-      Politics. In November we will have a new Governor. No matter which of the seven, it will be better. Connecticut needs and will get a new paradigm, and new ideas. New jobs will follow. New leadership inevitably brings with it a new optimism and energy. Connecticut and New Canaan will get a November lift as Hartford starts a new chapter.

-      For Sale Signs. Many of us have had a For Sale sign out for too long. Now at 2004 prices, some are waiting for the market to return. I believe the market will move sideways for the next few years. Town Hall must budget for that. If you can afford to stay, stay. New Canaan is a great option while we wait for the rebound. New Canaan prices are excellent when compared to Westchester and the City. The pendulum is swinging our way. 

-      Revaluation. In November the assessor resets the value of every house in New Canaan at a (more) correct value and new taxes are set. The value of many houses changed considerably since 2013 and this recalibration is about being fair to all. The reset will inevitably help move some unsold inventory. 

-      Debt. We have the highest debt of any town in this area (although our pension funds are 100% funded).  This debt was responsibly acquired to fund necessary long term asset improvements such as schools, treatment plants, town buildings, but it is still debt. Fortunately, our Boards of Finance and Selectmen are now hyper-conscious of that fact. Expect a new debt roadmap and capital plan this November outlining how we deliver top quality services and schools within our means. Expect a move toward 0% growth like Westport, Darien and Greenwich are doing.

-      Senior & Affordable Housing. Our lower-cost housing options were redeveloped during the building boom of the last 30 years. Ranches became mansions. Few condos were built to replace them, and those that were are very expensive. Now, the market responds with large, dense alternatives that scare us that the character of the town might be at stake. (The Preservation Alliance is a key piece fighting for our character but we need a strong P&Z. They put 100 restrictions on the Merritt Village. Good. They rejected the Roger Sherman redevelopment plan outright. Good. Let’s put our faith in P&Z. Give the Housing Authority a fair hearing and remember, “Don’t let the Perfect be the enemy of the Good.” (Voltaire) 

Comparing Two Years of House Sales by Neighborhood in New Canaan

I just crunched the numbers on the last two years of closed listings in New Canaan. 

I sorted the list by school zone: East, South and West

Fascinating spreadsheet.

South East West

Original Asking $1,571,742. $1,861,635 $2,350,986.

Final Asking $1,543,084. $1,784,402 $2,265,602.

Sold Price  $1,489,605. $1,702,498 $2,129,125.

Percentage of Orig   94.77% 91.45% 90.56%

Avg. Town Hall Feet 3872 4248 4143

Price Per Foot $384. $400. $513.

The West side commands a higher average price-per-foot than the other two neighborhoods.

South side has slightly smaller houses on smaller lots. This could account for some of the difference.

This spreadsheet is 520 sales between Sept 17, 2012 and Sept 17, 2014.

I was thinking of looking at the average age of houses in each neighborhood.

Perhaps a higher price per foot can be attributed to more recent construction in the West school neighborhood. 

In the East, 172 sales, the average age is 1957.

In the South, 159 sales, the average age is 1962.

In the West, 186 sales, the average age is 1967.

(three sales were labelled "other")

New Canaan Property Values on the Decline?

Nelson Oliveira of The New Canaan News did a story this week on the current revaluation taking place. While he got most of it right and property values are down an average of 2.8%, it is impossible to paint the whole market with one brush. 

http://m.newcanaannewsonline.com/default/article/New-Canaan-property-values-on-the-decline-5214576.php

Of note, they quoted me saying: 

The value of properties costing between $1 million and $4 million in New Canaan was mostly flat in 2013. As Realtor John Engel, who also serves on the Town Council, put it, "both ends of the seesaw are changing a lot, but the middle is flat."

This does not begin to capture the angst being expressed by those in the community whose property taxes have gone up more than 15% overnight. By my count 2575 homes have gone up an average of 12.4% and those people, typically on the left side of our seesaw, want to know why.