Year End Report 2011

YEAR END REPORT 2011 The real estate market has stabilized. We are getting more of the distressed properties sold and out of the bank system. It was predicted that Shadow Inventory (foreclosed or ready for foreclosure homes) would flood the market. Well, it never happened. Foreclosure filings in Connecticut dropped sharply in 2011 compared with the previous year, plunging 48%, according to RealtyTrac. New Canaan Market, 10-Year Average New Canaan saw year over year increases in every category, a trend suggesting a growing optimism on the part of sellers for 2012 market conditions. Here are some important numbers for the past year: 2011 Single Family Homes: Median Price: $1.60 million as compared to $1.46 million in 2010, up 9.4 % Average Price: $1.90 million as compared to $1.69 million in 2010, up 11.9% Homes Sold: 214 homes sold in 2011 as compared to 195 a year ago, up 9.7% Absorption Rate: 10.7 months of inventory compared to 15.38, down 30.4% Active Inventory: 207 houses for sale compared to 236 a year ago, down 12% 2011 Condominiums: Median Price: $657,000 as compared to $595,000 in 2010, up 12 % Average Price: $711,000 as compared to $656,000 in 2010, up 8.2% Condos Sold: 62 condos sold in 2011 as compared to 39 a year ago, up 59% Absorption Rate: 7.88 months of inventory compared to 21.94, down 64% 2011 Land Sales: Perhaps the most dramatic increase has come in the market for land sales, again indicating an increased optimism on the part of builders and their customers. The median sale price for the 3 lots sold in 2010 was $1,025,000. For 2011 the median price fell 31% to $700,000 and builders did respond, buying 19 lots this past year, an increase of 533% in volume. New construction activity has picked up as a result; builders are buying land at a cost that makes sense to build, primarily midrange homes. 2011 Rentals: The rental market has improved. The absorption rate for rentals has dropped from 7.4 months to 4.1 months. That is howlong the current inventory of properties would last at the current rate of sales. The number of rentals closed in 2011 increased 16.5% to 120 from 103. And while the average rental price has increased 40% to $3550, the median rental price has increased 162% to $4200. The rental market tells us a good deal about the broader market. The reduction in the rental inventory and higher rental rates is due to the following factors: Owners losing their homes due to foreclosure and short sales can only rent. Tough lender qualification requirements, causing fewer buyers and more renters. Many have lost their equity in real estate and stock market = no down payment to purchase. Many have damaged their credit and will not qualify to purchase. Many have lost their job and are not able to get a loan. The rental market is staring to produce much better cash flow and investors are actively purchasing more rental real estate. 2011 Interest Rates: Interest rates broke their historical lows of 2004-2005. The rates on average are about .5% to .75% below last year rates. A sample of rates as of first week of November 2011 with zero points: Loans under $417K=3.87% (conforming loans). Loans between $417K to $625K=4% (this is the new Jumbo conforming) Loans above $625K=4.5% (this is Jumbo loans). This year was a much better year than last year and we expect it to continue to get even better next year. The reason? We're experiencing an improving economy, lower interest rates and an upcoming presidential election. Historically, presidential elections bring about increased real estate activity, and coupled with low interest rates and increasing consumer confidence, it will help the New Canaan market to continue to grow in the coming year. Wishing you and your family a prosperous 2012! John Engel and Susan Engel

A More Efficient Market: 10 Questions I asked of the Market Demand Study Presentation

Here is the link to NCTV Channel 79 coverage of the Market Demand Study presentation on June 7th. Selectman candidate John Engel asked these questions following the presentation:

1. What is the vacancy rate of retail space in the downtown right now? We have census data to tell us that we have a 7.2% residential vacancy rate but no information on retail vacancies.

2. How many stores are in the downtown? And, how many of them are small, medium and large stores and how are those defined? We need metrics in order to understand the scope of the problem.

3. How many restaurants do we have? Restaurant licenses are issued and I seem to recall the number is over 80 food establishments of all types in New Canaan. How do restaurants draw traffic to the downtown and what impact does it have on shopping? On parking?

4. Is it part of the scope of the Market Study Committee to tell us how to take action, or recruit, desirable stores?

5. What tools, besides zoning changes, does the Town currently have to influence the marketability of our town?

6. Have you or will you survey the rental rates now and historically, and can that be made available to us as a tool for merchants, landlords and realtors to form a more efficient market?

7. What technologies will we have to monitor changes? From the top of my head I can suggest modern online parking meters, online traffic counters, online accessible rental databases of historical prices and vacancy rates, sales receipt databases.

8. How will an aging New Canaan population affect our Market Demand in the future?

9. Have we identified model communities from which we can glean best practices?

10. What is the effect of the Glass House on tourism? on the presence of a Metro North train station in our downtown? Are we doing all we can to leverage those two assets?