Monday, October 24, 2016

The Wilton Market Report, October 19, 2016

One of the subscribers to the New Canaan Market Report for October asked for a Wilton report.

There is no such thing. So, I am going to write one right here, right now. First, here is a chart of the amount of inventory in Wilton over the last five years. With the exception of spikes in the beginning of 2012 and again in 2016 it would appear we are at more normal levels of 9-15 months of inventory.


Next, we look at the number of Sales and the Dollar Volume of Sales. They should track along together and for the most part they do. The fact that the Dollar Volume is lagging the Number of Sales this year tells me that the volume of lower priced homes has accounted for most of the activity in 2016.


















I think Wilton represents great value in comparison to New Canaan, Westport, Darien and Greenwich. If you assume the schools are equal the difference in price should correspond to the higher taxes and longer commute to New York City. Historically that has accounted for a 40% (or less) difference in values. However, currently the Wilton market is selling at a 45% discount to the New Canaan and Darien markets.


Consider 2008 when New Canaan was $1.4 million to $853,000 in Wilton, a 39% difference.
Consider 2012 when New Canaan was $1.23 million to $713,000 in Wilton, a 43% difference.
Now, New Canaan is currently at $1.36 million to $746,000 in Wilton, a 45% difference.
Zillow is projecting New Canaan to move to $1.38 million and Wilton to $754,000, a 45% difference.
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