First Quarter 2019 Real Estate Market Reports for New Canaan and all 16 Towns of Fairfield County, Connecticut

16 Individual Town Reports. To download full reports click on the links in-line and at the bottom.

New Canaan - Closings are up 20% this quarter. Pending sales are down by the same amount. First quarter sales have dramatically increased for the past 3 years. 42 may be the new normal, up from 20 to 34 in years prior. Average price is down to $1.338 million, about where it was in 2012-2013, and  now equal to Darien. Condo sales, 14% of the market, usually consistent, are down 42% from normal levels of 12 sales. Inventory is level with last year, 301 houses and 41 condos. Riverside - 7 closings versus a range of 13 to 19 in the last 8 years. Average price of $2.1 million is the low end of an 8 year range of $1.8 to $3.6 million. Inventory is level with last year, 89 houses. Riverside is performing consistently with the larger Greenwich market which is also starting late and also down to an average price point of $2.3 million.  Rowayton - 11 closings in the quarter, same as last year, within an 8 year range showing between 8 and 15 closings. Prices of $1.17 million are up 12% but sit in the middle of an 8 year range of $960,000 to $1.32 million.  Stamford -120 closings, down from 153 a year ago. Last year was exceptional and 120 is in the middle of an 8 year range of 93 to 153. Average prices ($565,000) are down for the second year in a row and are the lowest they’ve been in 8 years. Condos ($340,000) are at the high end of an 8 year range between $274,000 and $355,000. There was only 1 house sale over $1.5 million and 3 house sales over $1 million while 2 condos closed over $1 million.  Weston - 27 sales vs. 23 a year ago and the best year of an 8 year range of 17 to 24. The average price is down to $640,000, the fifth straight year of price decline from a high of $1,015,000 in 2014 and a low of $628,000 in 2012. Sales volume is up despite very low inventory of 140 houses.  Westport - First thought is "wow". 46 sales versus 84 a year ago, a 45% drop. Westport is struggling with the lowest total in 8 years by a substantial margin and the lowest average price they've seen in 8 years, $1,291,000, a number which has dropped for 4 straight years. The absorption rate is up from 10.2 months a year ago to 11.8 months of inventory now. Note, in the categories below $1.2 million the absorption rate has gone down.  Wilton - is looking good with a 17% increase in sales, 40 versus 34 a year ago and 15 additional sales pending, same as a year ago, despite a modest rise in inventory (10%) to 208 houses. Those 40 houses account for the second best quarter in 8 years (Each of the last 3 years has been above average.) Prices steadily climbed from $794,000 8 years ago to a peak of $944,000 in 2016 before returning to 2012 levels, currently $768,000. Wilton has much inventory and sales in the $500,000 to $700,000 category with 2 sales over $1.5 million in the quarter (same as last year) and 4 sales between $1.2 and $1.5 million (which is double that of last year).  Cos Cob - 9 sales in the first quarter is the worst start in 5 years, down from 18 and 14 the previous two years. However, Cos Cob is one of the few towns that experienced an increase in the average sale price, up 4% to $1,520,000 which is an 8-year high. Prior to this year the average price ranged between $1,209,000 and $1,489,000. Cos Cob has one of the lowest absorption rates at only 7.4 months of inventory, down 32% since last year.  Darien - Steady in sales, 42 is up from 40, and the 3rd best in 8 years, but like her sister New Canaan experiencing strength in the lower price categories bringing the average sale price down 8% to $1,335,000. The hope is that Darien has a late selling season like last year but the fear is that the 37% decrease in pending sales (20) is a harbinger of things to come.  Easton - The 21 sales versus 23 is unremarkable, as is a 10% increase in average sale price ($605,000). What is worth noting is the 26% decrease in inventory to 76, by far the biggest change in inventory levels in Fairfield County. The steady decrease in Easton's absorption rate (-30%) in a year to 7.7 months of inventory is impressive, and we note they have low absorption rates the top of the Easton market, over $1 million.  Fairfield - The number of sales has steadily risen in Fairfield for 8 years in a row to 142, up 8%. This year we saw a 5% decrease in average price to $724,000, 3% fewer pending sales, and an 8% increase in inventory. Condo sales also rose from 21 to 26 and now represents 18% of sales.  Greenwich - They say Greenwich will be the first to come out of the slump. Well, not this quarter. With only 39 sales, down 35% from a total of 60 a year ago, we are looking for good news and not finding it. Average price is down 15% to $2.466 million, pending sales are down 34%, inventory levels are up 10%. The reason is simple: there is far less inventory available in Greenwich at every level under $2 million and 7 fewer sales under $1 million. And, despite dramatic increases in inventory (34 houses) at every level above $4 million we had 11 fewer sales over 4 million than a year ago. The good news in Greenwich is that condo sales are steady at 24 while condo inventory has dropped 9% and the average condo closing has risen 27% to over $1.05 million, a new high water mark.  Norwalk - The number of houses sold is down a little, 5%, but is down two years in a row and is below the 8 year average. Prices went up a very small amount to $578,000, the highest point in 8 years. Condo prices are also at their highest point in 8 years, now $334,000. Norwalk only saw 2 sales over $1.5 million but the $1.0 to $1.5 million band was up from 1 sale to 7 sales, a 600% bump. The ratio between list and sale price is the highest in Fairfield County, 97.7% of asking, peaking in the categories below $500,000. where they sell at 99% of asking. The greatest number of active homes are in the $600,000 to $800,000 level where the absorption rate is 9.4 months of inventory, down from 12.4 months a year ago.  Ridgefield, Wilton, Westport, Darien and New Canaan Median Prices over 10 Years

Old Greenwich - Up 35% in closings from 14 to 19. Prices unchanged at $2.4 million. Inventory unchanged at 73 homes available. Condo prices and inventory also unchanged with a year ago. The 19 closings are a new 8 year high over a previous range of 9 to 16 sales. The average sale price of $2.4 million over the last three years is also significantly better than the previous five years which ranged from $1.5 million to $2.2 million. 8 pending sales tell us that this energy will continue into the second quarter. Old Greenwich is one of the few towns seeing steadily increasing inventory peaks over the last 3 years, enough to stimulate sales but not enough to disrupt pricing confidence.  Redding - Down 4 sales to 17 and down 15% in price to $455,000, but poised to make up for it immediately with 17 pending sales, up from 10 a year ago. Inventory is down from 95 to 84. Redding has had 4 solid years previously and we expect a rebound.  Ridgefield - 48 sales each of the last two years, and about average for the last 8 years. Prices are up 5% to $706,000 while inventory is down 5%. The number of listings in each category is consistent, year to year, while the sales came at the top and bottom of the price range. What is interesting is that condo sales which currently make up 45% of the Ridgefield market are down 26% and prices declined 15% while condo inventory Rose 39%  Fairfield County - At the end of March the supply of active single family homes was almost identical to the supply at the same time last year. Rowayton and Easton had the greatest price increases while New Canaan, Weston and Wilton saw the largest sales increases. Slow Day at the Open House? 1 min. video When the master bath makes a statement... What are they looking at?  Video: The Truth About Zillow and Realtors:

The Engel Team John Engel, Susan Engel, Melissa Engel and Charles Anello Licensed in Connecticut 203-966-7800 main 203-247-4700 cell/text jengel@halstead.com view my listings

Chairman’s View: Support a Ban on House ‘For Sale’ Signs on MAY 8, 2018

Chairman’s View: Support a ban on house ‘for sale’ signs

MAY 8, 2018 BY NEW CANAAN ADVERTISER

The overwhelming majority of New Canaan citizens want to eliminate real estate signs. In a recent poll at the Advertiser Coffee 95% support a ban. They are a blight on our town. The signs would be gone except for the fact that every year a few Realtors object because it is a cheap form of advertising. 

Remember, we are residents first and Realtors second. We want our town to look beautiful, not like a town-wide tag sale. These signs cheapen New Canaan. If we act like our real estate is at a premium then maybe people will begin to regard it that way.

Greenwich and Tokeneke are our high-end sisters that prove the ban works. Greenwich P&Z regulations, section 6-163 (b) prohibits signs that “Direct attention to a business, product, service or other commercial activity, offered or existing elsewhere than on the premises where such sign is displayed.” New Canaan banned commercial signs with the exception of real estate. Nancy Healy, president of the Greenwich Board of Realtors when they enacted their sign ban said, “If New Canaan is going to make this step they’ll find out … it’s a good thing. It took the clutter off our streets. We are used to it now.”

Why now? What has changed? We have more houses on the market than ever before. In March 2008 New Canaan had 155 houses on the market. Ten years later we have 266 houses on the market, up 42%. That’s not the worst of it. The busiest time of the year for signs is coming up. Expect 358 for sale signs this June. That’s over 5% of the whole town. Nationally, houses sell on average in three weeks. In New Canaan some signs stay up for years, a semi-permanent scar. Signs are harming our ability to sell some streets in this town. Buyers now say, “What’s wrong with this street, why is everything on it for sale?”

The New Canaan Board of Realtors is considering the question. Board President Janis Hennessy absolutely supports the ban. Former presidents Joe Scozzafava and Becky Walsh agree we should take down the signs. Past President Arlene Bubbico disagrees, citing the national statistic that 7% of purchases come from signs. However, those statistics reveal 99% of Millennials and 89% of Boomers search online.

The first selectman supports the ban. We Town government leaders want the support of the Board of Realtors before either taking it to Planning and Zoning for a text change or to the Town Council for an ordinance. 

If you want to take back your town and enhance our real estate values then join me in supporting the ban. Call a Realtor and tell them it’s OK to take down the signs.

— John Engel is chairman of the New Canaan Town Council.

November Market Report for New Canaan and Fairfield County

We are having a very good Fall market here in New Canaan, not just in comparison to 2016. This chart makes it apparent that 2014 and 2015 were exceptional years and that 13 sales is more typical.

This chart of cumulative house and condo sales over the last ten years is a more sobering view. 216 single family house sales and 43 condo sales is fairly typical and last year was particularly poor here.

279 Active House listings is too many. This number has doubled from 145 back in 2000 and about 220 in 2013. The number of people in New Canaan has remained unchanged in the last 20 years so why has the number of active listings doubled? A good deal of this has to do with the financial and tax situation in Connecticut. There are many more opportunistic sellers than there were 10 years ago.

The number that jumps out on this chart is the number of closings under $1 million, up 147% year over year.  There is always a buyer for a relatively inexpensive home in this market, given the high quality schools and low taxes. So why did that number jump this year? One factor could be the relatively low number of inexpensive rentals on the market. When faced with limited options to rent many people opted to purchase instead. A second factor is the increase in inventory. Given the record levels of inventory, and the relative stability of prices and low interest rates, buyers did respond.

There is still 6 years of inventory above $5 million. This has to come back into balance. The number of active listings under $1 million is only 41 which makes it unlikely that we can sustain the current level of sales of 52. In the $1-2 million category we have about 1 year of inventory and that is a balanced market. 

Ah, condominiums. The condo market follows the housing market. When houses are selling then it produces buyers for our condo market. As we can see in the chart above there are sales at all levels in the condo market, and the current level of about 4 condo sales per month is consistent with condo performance over the last ten years. We expect that the increased volume in the housing market will result in higher median prices in the condo market.

What's wrong with Greenwich? Nothing. A 5% drop in volume is statistically insignificant because they had a relatively strong year last year. Prices are now $300,000 higher than New Canaan and Darien and this could account for the drop in volume. As I recall the prices were much tighter between the three towns a year ago. What is significant are the large increases in volume in 4 markets and small increases in volume in another 5 markets.

Inventory keeps climbing. While it is true that we're having a brief respite after hitting new records again in 2016, inventory levels are still much too high and reflect a whole generation of opportunistic sellers. Rather than settle into a home for 20 years people are much more willing to regard their primary home as an investment (and take a profit when it is presented).

This chart shows the seasonality of the number of listings is still a factor, with the peak number of listings in June before all of the pending Spring transactions have cleared.

The volatility in the November December months comes from houses coming off of inventory for the Christmas holidays. 

The absorption rate dives between November and January as people take a break from the market and pull their houses off with the expectation of re-listing in February or March. By May everything is back on the market and the number of sales outpaces the addition of new listings.

Ninety five percent is typical for the ratio between listing prices and selling prices. We have found that buyers will not typically make credible opening offers below 90% of asking price and prices tend to settle at the mid-point of the bid and the ask, 95%  What is far more instructive is the ratio to original list price which is consistently below 90% for the first time in recent memory.

The October Market Report for New Canaan

Friends,

There has been plenty of hand-wringing this year about the state of the local real estate market, much of it justified. Sales volume dropped and prices were slow to react. 

An article in last month's Atlantic Magazine attributed a soft suburban market throughout the northeast to the fact that we aren't supplying what buyers want, particularly young buyers. The Atlantic seems to think that Millenials don't want the suburban lifestyle any longer. They're moving to the cities where they can always catch an Uber. 

The article goes on to cite county and state statistics which show median prices about 20% down from the 2003 high. 

Summary Statistics For Houses, Two Years

However, New Canaan has fared better than most. This summer was pretty slow, but average and median prices had been holding firm through summer. As I mentioned above, this Fall we are now beginning to see seller's reductions of between 5% and 12% in response to the slowing sales volume. We now have 18 months of inventory on hand heading into the slower winter months, up from 14 months a year ago. 

Zillow shows the New Canaan market values as down only one percent since last year. They are predicting the New Canaan market is poised to rise nearly one percent next year.

Zillow's New Prediction is a Rising Market

July and August were not pretty for New Canaan. You can see in the chart below that sales held steady through May, began the decline in June and dropped 40% in July and 50% in August when compared to 2015. This was not unexpected based on the dwindling number of pendings recorded in June, but it has been a wakeup call for many of us nonetheless.

5 Years of N.C. House Sales

In fact, pending sales were down in June (-58%) and July (-30%) but set a new low in August (-79%). The trend continued in September with 16 pending sales indicating that we may have not seen the bottom.

Pending is not the only measure of market health. (It's not even a very good one. It really only gives us a peek at sales volume a month or two ahead.) Here is a chart that shows the past 5 years of Sales Volume for Single Family Homes. We see an increase in the volume in September over three of the previous four Septembers. 

5 Years of New Canaan (House) Sales $ Volume

The condo market bounced back this month with 7 sales in September after a disappointing August. The condo market has been negatively affected at times in the last few years by a lack of inventory to satisfy demand, especially under $1 million. We never seem to have enough condos to meet the need. As a result, in the last five years we have seen more new condos built in town than were built in the previous 20 years. New construction on Jeliff Mill Road, Park, Main and Forest Streets as well as The Maples on Oenoke Ridge. Now, with projects planned on Hoyt, Cross and Vitti, the Silvermine Tavern, The Roger Sherman and the Merritt Village we predict the condo market will continue to experience growth over the next decade. This new inventory is coming online as a great range of buyers begin to seek the price point and convenience that condos offer.

5 Years of New Canaan (Condo) Sales

The big story for 2016 is the number of listings (of single family homes). Everybody is asking have we seen the peak? Yes, with 297 homes on the market now, down from a high of 360, we have seen the peak for 2016. 

Number of Listings Over the Last Year

Below is a link to the New Canaan Market Report. If you would like to discuss the report, or if you have any other questions, feel free to contact us at 203-247-4700 (John) or 203-247-5999 (Susan).  

Best regards,          

John and Susan

Pioneers of Design and Architecture in New Canaan: Eliot Noyes, Brad Verbryke, Ernest Bevilacqua and Bob Graf in an internal meeting to discuss Mobil Oil, c.1968. We have listed Bob Graf's own home, designed in 1966, at 62 Moriarity Drive in Wilton.

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