First Half Market Report for Fairfield County, Connecticut

16 Individual Town Reports. To download full reports click on the links at the bottom of the email.

This is the 6 month report for Fairfield County. Good news: interest rates at record lows, 3% Bad news: there is little urgency among buyers  Good news: budget skips tolls & regionalization Bad news: state budget fails to cut any spending Good news: Connecticut still cheaper than NY  Bad news: still can't get to Connecticut quickly Cos Cob - This is the worst year in 5 years by any metric. The number of sales is down 53% to 20. The average price is down 15% to $1.42mm. Inventory is up 20%. Condo sales are steady while the average price is down 28% to $818k. Cos Cob is among the most expensive towns and the 83% decline in sales over $3mm to only 1 sale shows no sign of reversing.   Darien - Inventory is down 12%, sales are up 8%, and average price has declined 14% to a very affordable $1.45mm. With the second best tax rates in Connecticut, excellent schools, beaches and easy commute, Darien will remain one of the brighter points of light in Fairfield County.  See 175 Brookside Ave, a c. 1800 antique on 4 acres for $2.8 Easton - The number of Easton sales have been steadily increasing since 2012, now 62 with another 12 pending as the absorption rate drops to only 10.2 months. Is it any wonder with an average price of $622k in a market that boasts A+ schools? If you don't commute to New York City you're probably looking in Easton (and Redding). Consider 109 Maple Road in Easton is outstanding at only $579k. Fairfield - The number of sales has steadily risen in Fairfield for 8 years in a row to 364, up 1% from last year. This year we saw a 7% decrease in average price to $709k, and no change in inventory. Condo sales are up 13% to 61. The schools are ranked A+ by Niche and the commute to NYC is only 11 minutes further than Westport where homes cost twice as much. High end is soft here too. You can get incredible beach-front value at 1053 Fairfield Beach Road for only $2.45mm Greenwich - Greenwich is recovering from a terrible first quarter. Now, with 128 sales, down 10% from a year ago and the lowest total since 126 in 2012 we have reason to be cautiously optimistic that momentum is shifting. Average price is $2.78 million and rising. As the most expensive market in Fairfield County, Greenwich is a blue-chip stock, a bellwether for the high end, usually the first in the county to recover. New Canaan - Closings are up 11% year to date. Average closing price is down 16% to $1.40 million. Active inventory is down 9% to 330 homes, declining from a peak of 347. 81% of the sales are under $2mm. Condo sales are down 24% and average condo price remains $734k. Inventory is down 9% from last year, 330 houses, and down from the peak of 347. Despite being one of the more expensive towns in the market New Canaan is showing great resiliency under $2mm (where 81% of sales occur). According to this week's WSJ millennials are on the move. Expect New Canaan & Darien to be major beneficiaries of the flight to better suburbs from New York City. Norwalk - Strong sales in May and June were not enough to for full recovery, as year to date sales of 290 remains down 6% but fairly typical of the last eight years. Average closing price fell 3% to $585k. while inventory rose 3% to 413 houses available. The strongest sector of the Norwalk market were in the categories under $600k where 190 listings represents only a 4.5 month supply of inventory.  Old Greenwich - Sales unchanged at 41. Prices unchanged at $2.4 million. Inventory up 4% at 92 homes available. Condo prices and inventory also similar to a year ago. The 41 closings are in the middle of an 8 year range of 34 to 56 sales. The average sale price of $2.4 million has been rising consistently since 2013. Old Greenwich is one of the few towns seeing steadily increasing inventory peaks over the last 3 years, enough to stimulate sales but not enough to disrupt pricing confidence. There are only 22 houses under $1.5mm, a 7.8 month supply of houses. Old Greenwich is coveted by commuters and will continue to outperform the market. Redding - Redding is experiencing a 24% increase in sales to 62 while average price remains at the $538k level. Inventory is down 6% from 133 to 125. 48 of the 62 sales occurred between $400k and $800k, making Redding a relative bargain given its A+ ranked school system, 15th best in the state. With a decrease of 28% in inventory, expect prices to rise and the pace of sales to slow as buyers respond to a lack of inventory. Ridgefield - 149 sales each of the last two years, and about average for the last 8 years. Prices are up 4% to $698,000 while inventory is up 9% to 327, a 11.9 month supply. Condo sales, which currently make up 45% of the Ridgefield market, are down 12% and condo prices declined 14% while condo inventory remained unchanged. Only 10% of all sales occur above $1mm. Riverside - Riverside is not doing well in comparison to Old Greenwich and 37 sales is the worst start in 8 years, down 25% from last year. Average price of $1.86 million is the low point of an 8 year range of $1.9 to $2.7 million. Sellers are pulling back and Inventory is down 15% from last year, 92 houses, an 11.6 month supply. Despite being less expensive with an easier commute, Riverside is suffering worse than the larger Greenwich market which is down to an average price point of $2.78 million.  Rowayton - We see a 10% increase in sales volume to 35 over last year's 8-year low of 32 and a 7% increase in average price to $1.22mm and a 16% increase in inventory to 92, a whopping 15.3 month supply and 25% higher than this time last year. For most of the last year Rowayton has had a 10.7 month supply of inventory. 14 Westmere Avenue in Rowayton is a beautiful waterfront house for only $2.4mm. Stamford -The only category in Stamford that has more sales than last year is in the $600,000 to $700,000 band. Inventory rose in almost every category. The average closing price has fallen 3% to $632k. House sales are down 14% and condo sales are down 15%. Surprisingly to me, the Stamford house volume is only $201 million which is only 40% of Greenwich ($551mm ), trails Fairfield ($258mm) and Westport ($220mm), and is only slightly higher than Darien ($193mm). This month we take a granular look at Stamford's 12 neighborhoods showing the price per foot averages for homes and condos. Weston - The average price rose this year 4% to $768k after 4 straight years of declines. Perhaps Weston has seen the bottom and prices could rise? Not as long as Weston averages 150k to 250k more expensive than its two immediate small town neighbors, Eason and Redding, As long as averages prices are roughly the same price as larger neighbor Wilton, Weston will continue to struggle to find its footing. Currently, there is a 13.5 month supply of inventory, down from 14.4 months a year ago. Westport - Westport is having a tough year, down 25% in the number of sales for most of the period and ending down 21% The average price has declined 7% to $1.38mm  and the total dollar volume has declined 27% year over year. The good news in Westport is the third lowest mill rate in Connecticut. The bad news is one of their schools remains closed for repair and renovations. Wilton - is looking good with a 11% increase in sales, 101 versus 91 a year ago with no change in inventory, 259 houses. The average price is down substantially to $768k from $909k a year ago. Prices steadily climbed from $794,000 8 years ago to a peak of $944,000 in 2016 before returning to 2012 levels. With prices in the 700’s Wilton is an attractive trade-up market for many seeking top schools within a 75 minute commute of the city. The consolidated Connecticut report is here.

$4,499,000  61 Sturbridge Hill Road, NC $4,000,000  227 Lambert Road, NC $3,475,000  507 Silvermine Road, NC $3,200,000 84 Middle Ridge Road, NC $2,950,000  49 Middle Ridge Road, NC $2,900,000  27 Rippowam Road, NC $2,749,000  175 Brookside Road, Darien$2,295,000  258 Wahackme Road, NC $2,200,000  1293 Ponus Ridge, NC $2,125,000 83 Oak Street, NC $1,975,000  269 Dans Highway, NC $1,800,000  431 Greenley Road, NC$1,795,000  49 Gerrish Lane, NC$1,700,000  94 Indian Rock Road, NC $1,250,000 921 North Wilton Road, NC$1,195,000 108 Toby’s Lane, NC $1,155,000  1279 Smith Ridge Road, NC  $1,100,000  474 Main Street (A), NC condo  $1,100,000  309 Park Street, NC condo$1,100,000  31 Branch Brook Rd., Wilton $999,000 474 Main St. (B), NC condo $998,000  289 New Norwalk #7, NC condo$995,000  65 Comstock Hill Ave, Norwalk$900,000  705 Weed Street, #4, NC condo $870,000  45 Sunrise Avenue, NC  $799,000  5 Hermit Court, Westport  $750,000  131 River Street, NC  $750,000 113 Locust Avenue, NC  $739,000 119 Forest Street, NC condo $700,000  1303 Ponus Ridge, NC land  $699,000 20 Mountain Trail, Stamford $250,000 126 WashingtonSt #204, Norwalk  $15,000 111 Parish Lane, NC rental $10,000  854 North Wilton Road, NC rental $6,500 431 Greenley Road, NC rental $6,000 108 Toby’s Lane, NC rental $6,000 309 Park Street, NC rental $4,100 5 Hermit Court, Westport rental $3,900 113 Locust Ave, NC rental $3,500  17 Lukes Wood Road, NC rental $3,200  45 Sunrise Avenue, NC rental Buy a stone castle in New Canaan for 900k 258 Wahackme Rd  $2,295,000 (new video) 83 Oak Street - $2,125,000 126 Washington St. in SoNo - $250,000 31 Branch Brook Rd in Wilton - $1,100,000 474 Main Street in New Canaan   $999,000 113 Locust Avenue, New Canaan $680,000 108 Toby's Lane, new video, $1,195,000

The Engel Team John Engel, Susan Engel, Melissa Engel, Charles Anello & Serena Richards If you want to join our team give us a call. We are looking to add great agents. Licensed in Connecticut 203-966-7800 main 203-247-4700 cell/text jengel@halstead.com view my listings

Connecticut Market Reports for the First Half of 2019

The Connecticut First Half 2019 Market Reports are now available in Pilot. You can find the template in the Promo Blast section, called "CT First Half 2019 Market Reports". If you type "CT" in the search bar it will appear among the CT template selections. 

Just a reminder, quarterly reports include an additional page for each town's absorption rates for houses, and a page on absorption rates for condos for the towns of Greenwich, Stamford, Norwalk, New Canaan, and Ridgefield.

Here are direct links to each town's report: 

https://media.halstead.com/pdf/1H19CosCobMR.pdf

https://media.halstead.com/pdf/1H19DarienMR.pdf

https://media.halstead.com/pdf/1H19EastonMR.pdf

https://media.halstead.com/pdf/1H19FairfieldMR.pdf

https://media.halstead.com/pdf/1H19Greenwich.pdf

https://media.halstead.com/pdf/1H19NewCanaanMR.pdf

https://media.halstead.com/pdf/1H19NorwalkMR.pdf

https://media.halstead.com/pdf/1H19OldGreenwich.pdf

https://media.halstead.com/pdf/1H19ReddingMR.pdf

https://media.halstead.com/pdf/1H19RidgefieldMR.pdf

https://media.halstead.com/pdf/1H19Riverside.pdf

https://media.halstead.com/pdf/1H19RowaytonMR.pdf

https://media.halstead.com/pdf/1H19StamfordMR.pdf

https://media.halstead.com/pdf/1H19WestonMR.pdf

https://media.halstead.com/pdf/1H19WestportMR.pdf

https://media.halstead.com/pdf/1H19WiltonMR.pdf

Here is a link to the report that includes a page on each town. 

https://media.halstead.com/pdf/1H19ConnecticutMR.pdf

Chairman's View: The Best Small Town in America (New Canaan Advertiser June 13, 2019)

New Canaan was just named one of the “15 Best Small Towns to Visit in 2019” by Smithsonian magazine. Every year their editors search the entire country for places that sing to our imaginations and offer a distinct sense of place. New Canaan is now recognized as the best of small town America.

That’s some well-deserved recognition at a time when we need it. Local news is often negatively focused on the slings and arrows directed at us from Hartford, our few self-imposed problems combined with certain wistfulness about the way life used to be in our small town. That can make us feel vulnerable and low.  Thank you, Smithsonian, for recognizing New Canaan is beautiful and vibrant and has much to be thankful for. We are not only a great place to live but also a great place to visit.

So, what did the Smithsonian editors find here to crow about? First, they began New Canaan’s story with architectural pioneer Walter Gropius and his influence on the Harvard Five architects who lived and built 80 extraordinary houses here.  The editors called our architecture an “unusual blend of modernism” that has continued with the “sleek” River Building at Grace Farms, and is juxtaposed with the “stunning” Waveny castle and our stone Carriage Barn. Most importantly the magazine recognized that architecture is alive here: the Glass House summer party, the Historical Society’s Mad for Modern gala, the New Canaan Library’s “Glass House Presents” lecture series and heck, just slowing down for afternoon tea with Frank at Grace Farms are just some of the ways we continuously celebrate and live with New Canaan’s uniquely great architecture. (By the way a new architectural foundation is opening its columned porch on God’s Acre and planning their first exhibition)

Second, the Smithsonian called our walkable downtown a “Fairfield County rarity”. It is. They noted the tented home of Summer Theatre of New Canaan on the way into town as well as the vibrant mix of boutique shops, high-end retailers, cozy breakfast eateries and Elm Restaurant which they called “high-end” but is only one of 50 first-class restaurant choices spanning the full range of family to formal.

We are beginning to appreciate the value of attracting visitors to our town and recently created a 15-person committee of experts (the TEDAC) to identify, cultivate and grow what is awesome about this town and begin to communicate it to others. 

I’d like to add one essential thing that Smithsonian failed to mention: the people. There are plenty of pretty, but mostly empty, towns across America. New Canaan’s fabulous downtown with its awesome architecture and all of those arts and non-profits wouldn’t be worth visiting if they weren’t full of the most interesting people. We are out shopping, spilling on to the sidewalks on restaurant row, waving out our windows at the crossing guard, beeping hello at baby carriages along South Avenue. We are out walking the Irwin paths, running the Waveny trails, biking the back-country, filling our pretty churches Sunday mornings and our bleachers on Friday nights. Thousands come to the Caffeine & Carburator car shows, picnic on the 4^thof July, light the menorah and carol on God’s acre. If you are a visitor to our town it’s the people you’ll meet who make up the foreground, behind whom a 200 year tapestry of fascinating architecture and commerce are only the physical record of the way New Canaan lives. It’s a great time to re-discover New Canaan.

November Market Report for New Canaan and Fairfield County

We are having a very good Fall market here in New Canaan, not just in comparison to 2016. This chart makes it apparent that 2014 and 2015 were exceptional years and that 13 sales is more typical.

This chart of cumulative house and condo sales over the last ten years is a more sobering view. 216 single family house sales and 43 condo sales is fairly typical and last year was particularly poor here.

279 Active House listings is too many. This number has doubled from 145 back in 2000 and about 220 in 2013. The number of people in New Canaan has remained unchanged in the last 20 years so why has the number of active listings doubled? A good deal of this has to do with the financial and tax situation in Connecticut. There are many more opportunistic sellers than there were 10 years ago.

The number that jumps out on this chart is the number of closings under $1 million, up 147% year over year.  There is always a buyer for a relatively inexpensive home in this market, given the high quality schools and low taxes. So why did that number jump this year? One factor could be the relatively low number of inexpensive rentals on the market. When faced with limited options to rent many people opted to purchase instead. A second factor is the increase in inventory. Given the record levels of inventory, and the relative stability of prices and low interest rates, buyers did respond.

There is still 6 years of inventory above $5 million. This has to come back into balance. The number of active listings under $1 million is only 41 which makes it unlikely that we can sustain the current level of sales of 52. In the $1-2 million category we have about 1 year of inventory and that is a balanced market. 

Ah, condominiums. The condo market follows the housing market. When houses are selling then it produces buyers for our condo market. As we can see in the chart above there are sales at all levels in the condo market, and the current level of about 4 condo sales per month is consistent with condo performance over the last ten years. We expect that the increased volume in the housing market will result in higher median prices in the condo market.

What's wrong with Greenwich? Nothing. A 5% drop in volume is statistically insignificant because they had a relatively strong year last year. Prices are now $300,000 higher than New Canaan and Darien and this could account for the drop in volume. As I recall the prices were much tighter between the three towns a year ago. What is significant are the large increases in volume in 4 markets and small increases in volume in another 5 markets.

Inventory keeps climbing. While it is true that we're having a brief respite after hitting new records again in 2016, inventory levels are still much too high and reflect a whole generation of opportunistic sellers. Rather than settle into a home for 20 years people are much more willing to regard their primary home as an investment (and take a profit when it is presented).

This chart shows the seasonality of the number of listings is still a factor, with the peak number of listings in June before all of the pending Spring transactions have cleared.

The volatility in the November December months comes from houses coming off of inventory for the Christmas holidays. 

The absorption rate dives between November and January as people take a break from the market and pull their houses off with the expectation of re-listing in February or March. By May everything is back on the market and the number of sales outpaces the addition of new listings.

Ninety five percent is typical for the ratio between listing prices and selling prices. We have found that buyers will not typically make credible opening offers below 90% of asking price and prices tend to settle at the mid-point of the bid and the ask, 95%  What is far more instructive is the ratio to original list price which is consistently below 90% for the first time in recent memory.