Chairman's View: Revaluation (Dec. 20, 2018)

Chairman’s View: Revaluation

DECEMBER 20, 2018 BY JOHN ENGEL. CHAIRMAN, TOWN COUNCIL

New Canaan’s real estate grand list fell by $570 million (7.15%) compared to 2017.In the recent revaluation:

• 4,861 parcels saw average decreases of 11%.
• 2,308 saw average increases of 13%.
• For homes worth more than $3 million, the average decrease was 14%.
• For $2 million to $3 million homes, the average decrease was 10%.
• For $1 million to $2 million homes, the average decrease was 7%.

Homes less than $1 million saw an average increase of 1%. Multifamily homes decreased 4%. Commercial properties increased an average of 13%. Condominiums increased 9%. 

We will not know what the new mill rate is and the new taxes are until the MuniVal consultation period is complete (this week and first week of January), then the Board of Assessment appeals process is complete (February) and then the (town and school) budget process ends with the Town Council vote April 4, 2019. 

If your revaluation is factually wrong then schedule a meeting this week for early January with MuniVal, the revaluation company and correct the facts (203-292-5500 or newcanaanreval@munival.com). If unsuccessful, then you must appeal in person to the Board of Assessment Appeals with facts about your house and comparable sales that occurred between Oct 1, 2017 and Oct 1, 2018. Appointments are given February 1 to 20 and the appeals take place in March. Sales that fall outside of that 1-year window are considered but carry less weight. 

After the 2013 revaluation the Board of Assessment Appeals increased two assessments and reduced 187 of the 285 appeals filed. Some homeowners appeal alone, others take a Realtor or an attorney. Some attorneys charge by the hour. Others work on contingency, taking a percentage of a successful appeal. If an appeal process is unsuccessful, the recourse is a lawsuit. Five years ago, 13 homeowners filed lawsuits against the town. Two were subsequently withdrawn. It takes three or four years to resolve a lawsuit.

Assuming health care rises 5%, town salaries rise 2.8%, school salaries 2.2% and $2.5 million comes from the general fund I expect expenses to increase 1.47% with “level services” and 1.86% if we follow Board of Finance guidance. Therefore, the mill rate announced in May will be between 18.61 and 18.69. That’s up 10% from 16.96.  A homeowner’s revaluation would have to decrease 9% in order to see a drop in taxes. To calculate your 2019 taxes multiply .01862 by your new valuation. (The spreadsheet is posted at johnengel.com).

Darien is revaluing now. Their assessor predicted most revaluations within 3% or 4% of their previous valuation. He expects the Darien mill rate to remain close to their current 16.08 rate. Wilton, now at 28.19, will send out revaluation letters in early January. Ridgefield’s grand list rose one half of one percent in their February 2018 revaluation, a 28.78 mill rate. Westport’s mill rate has been flat at 16.86 for 2 years and they won’t revalue until 2020. New Canaan experienced a 3% drop in the 2013 (reval) grand list but gained 1% in most years since (up $84 million, $85 million, $81 million, then $51 million in 2017).

Chairman's View: Revaluation and the Condo Market (Feb. 28, 2019)

Chairman’s View: Revaluation and the condo market

FEBRUARY 28, 2019 BY JOHN ENGEL, CHAIRMAN, TOWN COUNCIL

Condominiums rose 9% in value in a 5-year total revaluation that was down 7.19% The average condo owner will see a double-digit increase in their taxes, Specifically, 955 condos will see average increases in taxes of $1,137. Many condo owners are upset. They’re organizing behind their condo presidents saying this is a regressive tax on our seniors and demanding that something be done.

What are our options? New Canaan could have asked the State to throw out the entire revaluation if we had a basis to do so. Or, we can follow the process, appealing assessments individually. Four hundred and ten people have filed appeals, a bit more than f years ago (285), but a little lower than 10 (419) or 15 years ago (421).

Here’s the math: In 2013 47 condos sold at an average price of $798,807 and a median of $760,000. The high end was supporting the market with five sales above $1.2 million in 2013 and six sales over $1.2 million in 2012.

In 2018, 46 condos sold averaging, $778,962 and a median of $690,000. We had only one sale above $1.2 million last year. The high-end of the condo market is struggling. Not so at the bottom end, where demand is strong and prices on a per-foot basis constant.

In 2018 condos sold for $417 per foot and 1.56 times their assessments. Contrast this with five years ago, when they sold for $420 per foot and only 1.32 times their assessments. That multiple of assessment is the key. They are selling for a greater multiple versus their assessments. Their assessments had to catch up. Contrast that 1.56 multiple with houses, which are selling at 1.26 times their assessments.

Why are condos selling? It’s a relatively inexpensive way to buy into the New Canaan school system. And, Darien has far fewer condominiums, only about one-quarter the number we have in New Canaan. In contrast to the single-family house market, the condo market is remarkably consistent, four sales per month for the last 10 years, the result of continued demand for workforce housing, entry-level families and downsizing seniors for only 13% of our housing stock.

Munival, based out of Fairfield, (for $222,000) was New Canaan’s choice instead of choosing Ryan or Vision, both out of Massachusetts. Munival also works for Greenwich, Stamford and Norwalk. Darien chose Munis/Tyler Technologies for about the same price, $209,900 (but without a full inspection on their commercial)

Condos are in demand faster than they are being built, prices on less expensive condos are rising, and if we don’t like that we should ask ourselves if our zoning laws adequately address an affordable condominium solution for the next 10 years. That’s the tool we can use. In my professional opinion as a Realtor and based on these values, the current re-valuation is accurate.

The opinions expressed in Chairman’s View are those of Chairman John Engel and not necessarily those of other Town Council members.

Election Pause? The Engel Team's Market Report for Connecticut, November 2018

Westport, a little less expensive at $1.33mm, suffers a little bit less, volume down 9% in October and 2% for the year with prices down only 7% for the year.  Wilton where the average house is still under $800k (and condos under $400k), is seeing prices rise 4% (and 13%) for the year despite inventory levels rising 14% (and 33%) Rowayton sees inventory up 13%, prices and volume down. The median closing price fell 28% to $950,000 and the average condo is now only $316,000, down from $1.44 million. Greenwich, Wilton, Westport, Darien and New Canaan Median Prices over 5 years Greenwich had a soft October, but annual volume, prices and inventory are consistent with last year, 419 now for sale and 268 sold. Old Greenwich is up both in October and for the year, reversing a 5-year decline in volume that declined from 96 to only 60 sales in the previous 5 years. Now, sales are back to 70. Riverside is up in October, flat for the year, with fairly consistent volume for 8 years. Cos Cob prices and volume are up for the year, not surprising where the average home is $1.62 million, over $600,000 less than prices in Riverside and Old Greenwich.  Stamford and Norwalk Median Prices  Stamford and Norwalk are trending similarly. Down for the month, but flat for the year. Stamford shows 2 years of consistent sales volume and prices for both houses & condos. Houses remain at $580k, condos at $348k Norwalk shows average house prices holding at $613k while condos slip 6% to $280k despite a huge drop in inventory there of 34%

Hilltop Luxury Under Construction $4.8mm Classic cape with barns & river views (call) Elegant awesome: 507 Silvermine $4.18mm Striking: 269 Dan's Highway $2.3mm Current Listings of the Engel Team: 61 Sturbridge Hill, New Canaan $4.8mm 507 Silvermine Road, New Canaan $4.2mm 27 Rippowam Road, New Canaan $3.2mm 269 Dans Highway (VIDEO) $2.3mm 276 Park Street, New Canaan $1.4mm 921 North Wilton Rd, New Canaan $1.3mmCanaan Close #7 (VIDEO) $1.3mm  309 Park Street (VIDEO) $1.2mm  45 Sunrise Avenue, New Canaan $995k  65 Comstock Hill Ave, Norwalk $995k  88 South Avenue, (VIDEO) $799k  854 North Wilton Road, New Canaan $10k309 Park Street New Canaan $7800/mo 45 Sunrise Avenue, New Canaan $3500/mo

The Engel Team  John Engel, Susan Engel, Melissa Engel And Stephanie Sullivan  Licensed in Connecticut 183 Elm Street, New Canaan, CT 06840  c: 203.858.0266 o: 203.966.7800  EngelTeam@halstead.com  view my listings

The May Market Report - Sales are Up, Even With Last Year, But Pendings are Starting to Slow

34 Urban Street  $739,000 new listing, 3 rental units, wow!  Orchard Hills Condo  $754,000 new listing, under $1mm Pride's Crossing #9  $888,000 walk to town, under $1mm 29 Maple Street condo  $799,000 high-style, new wow price    108 Toby's Lane $1.350    private riverfront retreat   151 East Avenue $1.368   new listing, top-flight condo 285 Havilland Rd $1.389 new listing, gone, already sold it!  289 New Norwalk Rd   $1.68   the best condo at Canaan Close 16 Ravenglass Dr.   $1.649 privacy, a gated community 76 Sturbridge Hill Rd $1.599 2 acres, 5 beds, pool, new price Eliot Noyes  and Bob Graff,  two of the greatest industrial designers. The Noyes-Graff House   $1.78 106 Logan Road   $1.799 great value, pristine   1094 Ponus Ridge $2.08 reduced 20%, wow price!!! The Willis Mills House, 1956 gone, two offers. rented it!! (another modern coming on this week, email for pictures) 242 Wahackme Rd.   $3.40 shingle style and great pool 227 Lambert Road  $4.780 a romantic estate, new price! 31 Deacon's Way $3.888 superb, new listing this week! tour the party barn on Lambert 1271 Oenoke Rdg.   rental $4000   tour this lakeside colonial 309 Park Street $8000 gone, rented both long-term 477 Main Street $7000  gone, rented both long-term video tour by Susan Engel

Friends, How's the market? Everybody is asking. First, some data. 20 houses were sold in April, up from 15 and the most in April since 2007. It allowed us to catch up to where we were last year. Its been a late Spring market. After 4 months we have 51 sales versus 49. We are not in a recession. This is solid sales volume.  The average sale price decreased 14% since this time last year, down from $2.228 million to $1.908 million. This is a result of more sales at the low end of the market.  We have had zero sales over $4 million this year. Zero. That part of the market is struggling. Last year we posted 3 super-sales in the first 4 months. Sales at $11 .7 million and $5.1 million were attributed to large sub-dividable lots while the $4.2 million sale was a beautiful newer home on 4 acres. Instead, this year we've seen 7 sales between $3.0 and $3.75 million, up from 2 at this time last year. New Canaan single family home inventory has increased 37% from 260 to 332. As of the writing of this market report two weeks later that total has climbed to 347. We had predicted a June peak of 370 in our February Market Report and we stand by the prediction because pending sales are down 41% from where they were last year year. Instead of looking forward to 61 sales in the next two months we are on track to sell only 36. Let's break it down... Fairfield County Sales: The number of sales is up 10% across the county with four out of six town posting big gains. Wilton is flat for the year with 43 sales and New Canaan is only up 4.1%. Prices are flat everywhere with no town posting a change of more than 5.6%.  Fairfield County Inventory is up only 4.6% with the only large gains being posted in New Canaan (+21%) and Wilton (13%) While a 4.6% increase does not sound alarming, it is an 8.6% increase in inventory over 2 years which translates to nearly 500 houses. Expect this increase in inventory to have a lagging effect. New Canaan Pending Sales: is our best forward-looking indicator. Looking at the first quarter we saw a 21% decrease in Pending Sales from 43 to 34. That number should be rising to 61. Looking only at the month of April we saw a 37% decline in Pendings which brought us to a four month decline of 41%. This is concerning and something to watch.  Below is a link to the New Canaan May Market Report. If you would like to discuss the report, or if you have any other questions, feel free to contact us at 203-247-4700 (JE) or 203-247-5999 (SE).   Best regards,           John and Susan The inventory is spread across all segments of the market, geographically distributed across all prices, in every style. 20 sales this month, and 51 for the year.  Better than 2015 We will see sales volume peaking at normal levels of $60-$70 million per month in June and July again. Is it surprising that we see normal levels: 120-300? Five years ago we ranged from 141 to 289 days. The absorption rate shows normal house sales rates (243 per year) but an excessive number of listings. Five years ago the graph peaked twice at 15 months. Around 94% is normal. The divergence indicates a buyer's market where seller's are chasing offers. Susan admires the wallpaper at the Noyes-Graff House