Showing posts with label Harvard Five. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Harvard Five. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 12, 2019

Chairman's View: The Best Small Town in America (New Canaan Advertiser June 13, 2019)

New Canaan was just named one of the “15 Best Small Towns to Visit in 2019” by Smithsonian magazine. Every year their editors search the entire country for places that sing to our imaginations and offer a distinct sense of place. New Canaan is now recognized as the best of small town America.

That’s some well-deserved recognition at a time when we need it. Local news is often negatively focused on the slings and arrows directed at us from Hartford, our few self-imposed problems combined with certain wistfulness about the way life used to be in our small town. That can make us feel vulnerable and low.  Thank you, Smithsonian, for recognizing New Canaan is beautiful and vibrant and has much to be thankful for. We are not only a great place to live but also a great place to visit.

So, what did the Smithsonian editors find here to crow about? First, they began New Canaan’s story with architectural pioneer Walter Gropius and his influence on the Harvard Five architects who lived and built 80 extraordinary houses here.  The editors called our architecture an “unusual blend of modernism” that has continued with the “sleek” River Building at Grace Farms, and is juxtaposed with the “stunning” Waveny castle and our stone Carriage Barn. Most importantly the magazine recognized that architecture is alive here: the Glass House summer party, the Historical Society’s Mad for Modern gala, the New Canaan Library’s “Glass House Presents” lecture series and heck, just slowing down for afternoon tea with Frank at Grace Farms are just some of the ways we continuously celebrate and live with New Canaan’s uniquely great architecture. (By the way a new architectural foundation is opening its columned porch on God’s Acre and planning their first exhibition)

Second, the Smithsonian called our walkable downtown a “Fairfield County rarity”. It is. They noted the tented home of Summer Theatre of New Canaan on the way into town as well as the vibrant mix of boutique shops, high-end retailers, cozy breakfast eateries and Elm Restaurant which they called “high-end” but is only one of 50 first-class restaurant choices spanning the full range of family to formal.

We are beginning to appreciate the value of attracting visitors to our town and recently created a 15-person committee of experts (the TEDAC) to identify, cultivate and grow what is awesome about this town and begin to communicate it to others. 

I’d like to add one essential thing that Smithsonian failed to mention: the people. There are plenty of pretty, but mostly empty, towns across America. New Canaan’s fabulous downtown with its awesome architecture and all of those arts and non-profits wouldn’t be worth visiting if they weren’t full of the most interesting people. We are out shopping, spilling on to the sidewalks on restaurant row, waving out our windows at the crossing guard, beeping hello at baby carriages along South Avenue. We are out walking the Irwin paths, running the Waveny trails, biking the back-country, filling our pretty churches Sunday mornings and our bleachers on Friday nights. Thousands come to the Caffeine & Carburator car shows, picnic on the 4thof July, light the menorah and carol on God’s acre. If you are a visitor to our town it’s the people you’ll meet who make up the foreground, behind whom a 200 year tapestry of fascinating architecture and commerce are only the physical record of the way New Canaan lives. It’s a great time to re-discover New Canaan.

Monday, June 13, 2016

The June Market Report - Real estate is a tug of war...


new listing, under $1mm

high-style, new wow price
 
walk to town, under $1mm
  NEW PRICE riverfront retreat

151 East Avenue $1.368
  new listing, top-flight condo

private 80 acre gated community

 7 Canaan Close  
$1.68
temporarily off the market

2 acres, 5 beds, pool, new price

The Noyes-Graf House $1.780 
as seen in WSJ Mansions section today,
to be featured in the New York Times

NEW PRICE, beautiful

242 Wahackme Rd. $3.40
Nantucket style and great pool

superb new listing
227 Lambert Road  $4.780
a romantic estate, new price!

31 Deacon's Way rental $16,000

2 acres next to Country School, new listing: $1,000,000
Fellow real estate fans,

Real estate is a tug of war between the buyers and the sellers. Sometimes the sellers give in and the market drops. Sometimes they hold out and buyers get tired of waiting pull the trigger.

We are in the middle of that tug of war right now. Sellers are stubborn. Buyers are looking, but they are waiting. That is why we have so much inventory in a market with solid volume and strong prices.

The New Canaan Advertiser asked me this week to comment on their statement, "Buyers are highly selective but things are moving. Sellers need to be on their game with a home priced right and or turnkey ready." Ok, we've taken each of those comments and reflected on it below.

"Highly selective" is a function of ample inventory. Buyers think with choices they should be able to drive a bargain. That isn't necessarily so. On average prices are holding up. Volume is steady. If you look at the graph below you see that houses are selling 96% of their final asking price, and 93% of their original asking price. I have been involved in 3 bidding wars this season ranging from below $1 million to nearly $4 million and in every case the buyers needed the affirmation of other buyers to inspire confidence and stimulate bidding action. In the cases where there is no second bidder we see buyers lose interest and move on.
 
 
"Things are moving" is also true. New Canaan's volume of sales (68) is exactly the average of the last ten years sales (68.9) of single family homes. The same is true for condos. We've sold 17 condos this year vs. 15 last year and 20 two years ago and the average over ten years is 17.3  


"Home priced right" is key. Many of the currently listed homes were priced "fairly" based on tax assessor, Zillow, and other available date. But, in this market it takes a house priced sharply to cut through the clutter. There are roughly 15 houses for sale in the $1.5, $1.6 and $1.7 million categories. 5 of each of these will sell this year. To be one of those sales you must have a scarce feature or be priced under the market. I ask my sellers "how badly do you want to be one of those 5 sales this year?"  

There are a few sales this year that dramatically illustrate that point. One, beautifully built in 2006, sold then for $5.6 million. It was listed for that same $5.6 million in 2014. After two years on the market it was just reduced to $3.995 and sold this month for $3.3 causing many to say this was a great bargain. That's 59% of its high, but 80% of where the tax assessor had it pegged. "Home priced right" is sometimes a function of how much time you have to wait for the market to come back. Should we evaluate the market based on the 2007 high?

The average sale price in New Canaan for the first 5 months is $1,875,000, a dip of only 1.7% versus $1,908,000 for the first 5 months of 2015. However, Average can be manipulated with a few large sales. Taking the more reliable Median pricing over the last 10 years we see that New Canaan is actually climbing fairly steadily, up 30% since the dip in 2009.


Finally, "turnkey ready" is also important. Many of our buyers are coming from New York and beyond and often don't have the time, the additional financing, or the experience to take on major renovations right away. They are focused on easing the transition into a new community, not wringing the last ounces of value out of a "fixer-upper". In a seller's market buyers are sometimes willing to take on a fixer-upper. Or, when banks were able and more willing to lend against improvements we saw home equity and construction loans. Now, those improvements are a seller's burden. Some of my motivated sellers are adding central air conditioning and replacing aged heating systems anticipating these objections. At least two of my sellers hired a building inspector before putting their houses on the market in order to repair any defects and not lose a sale over condition.
New Canaan single family home inventory has increased 4% from 332 to 346. We had predicted a June peak of 370 in our February Market Report but that might be too high because while pending sales are down the number of new listings has also slowed to only 58 from a more typical 92.


Let's break it down...
  • Fairfield County Sales: The number of sales is up 7.4% across the county with four out of six town posting gains. Wilton remains flat for the year with 65 sales and New Canaan is the only town down, -8.1%. Prices are flat everywhere with only Westport, (-9.5%) posting a change of more than 2.4%. 
  • New Canaan Pending Sales: is our best forward-looking indicator. Looking at the first quarter we saw the beginning of a decreasing trend in Pending Sales from 43 to 34. That number should be rising to 68. Looking only at the month of May we saw a 37% decline in Pendings which brought us to a five month decline of 44%. This remains concerning and something to watch. 
Below is a link to the New Canaan June Market Report. If you would like to discuss the report, or if you have any other questions, feel free to contact us at 203-247-4700 (John) or 203-247-5999 (Susan) 

Best regards,          

John and Susan
 
 
Pioneers of Design and Architecture in New Canaan: Eliot Noyes, Brad Verbryke, Ernest Bevilacqua and Bob Graf in an internal meeting to discuss Mobil Oil, c.1968. This week we have listed Bob Graf's own home, designed in 1966. 


   

   

Tuesday, May 17, 2016

The May Market Report - Sales are Up, Even With Last Year, But Pendings are Starting to Slow




new listing, 3 rental units, wow!


walk to town, under $1mm

high-style, new wow price

 

  private riverfront retreat


  new listing, top-flight condo



285 Havilland Rd $1.389
new listing, gone, already sold it!


  the best condo at Canaan Close

privacy, a gated community

2 acres, 5 beds, pool, new price


great value, pristine

  1094 Ponus Ridge $2.08
reduced 20%, wow price!!!


The Willis Mills House, 1956
gone, two offers. rented it!!
(another modern coming on this week, email for pictures)

shingle style and great pool


227 Lambert Road  $4.780
a romantic estate, new price!


gone, rented both long-term

gone, rented both long-term

video tour by Susan Engel
Friends,

How's the market? Everybody is asking. First, some data.

20 houses were sold in April, up from 15 and the most in April since 2007. It allowed us to catch up to where we were last year. Its been a late Spring market.

After 4 months we have 51 sales versus 49. We are not in a recession. This is solid sales volume. 

The average sale price decreased 14% since this time last year, down from $2.228 million to $1.908 million. This is a result of more sales at the low end of the market. 

We have had zero sales over $4 million this year. Zero. That part of the market is struggling. Last year we posted 3 super-sales in the first 4 months. Sales at $11 .7 million and $5.1 million were attributed to large sub-dividable lots while the $4.2 million sale was a beautiful newer home on 4 acres. Instead, this year we've seen 7 sales between $3.0 and $3.75 million, up from 2 at this time last year.


New Canaan single family home inventory has increased 37% from 260 to 332. As of the writing of this market report two weeks later that total has climbed to 347. We had predicted a June peak of 370 in our February Market Report and we stand by the prediction because pending sales are down 41% from where they were last year year. Instead of looking forward to 61 sales in the next two months we are on track to sell only 36.


Let's break it down...
  • Fairfield County Sales: The number of sales is up 10% across the county with four out of six town posting big gains. Wilton is flat for the year with 43 sales and New Canaan is only up 4.1%. Prices are flat everywhere with no town posting a change of more than 5.6%. 
  • Fairfield County Inventory is up only 4.6% with the only large gains being posted in New Canaan (+21%) and Wilton (13%) While a 4.6% increase does not sound alarming, it is an 8.6% increase in inventory over 2 years which translates to nearly 500 houses. Expect this increase in inventory to have a lagging effect.
  • New Canaan Pending Sales: is our best forward-looking indicator. Looking at the first quarter we saw a 21% decrease in Pending Sales from 43 to 34. That number should be rising to 61. Looking only at the month of April we saw a 37% decline in Pendings which brought us to a four month decline of 41%. This is concerning and something to watch. 
Below is a link to the New Canaan May Market Report. If you would like to discuss the report, or if you have any other questions, feel free to contact us at 203-247-4700 (JE) or 203-247-5999 (SE) 

Best regards,          

John and Susan

The inventory is spread across all segments of the market, geographically distributed across all prices, in every style.

20 sales this month, and 51 for the year.  Better than 2015
We will see sales volume peaking at normal levels of $60-$70 million per month in June and July again.

Is it surprising that we see normal levels: 120-300?
Five years ago we ranged from 141 to 289 days.

The absorption rate shows normal house sales rates (243 per year) but an excessive number of listings. Five years ago the graph peaked twice at 15 months.

Around 94% is normal. The divergence indicates a buyer's market where seller's are chasing offers.


Susan admires the wallpaper at the Noyes-Graff House