Tuesday, May 17, 2016

The May Market Report - Sales are Up, Even With Last Year, But Pendings are Starting to Slow




new listing, 3 rental units, wow!


walk to town, under $1mm

high-style, new wow price

 

  private riverfront retreat


  new listing, top-flight condo



285 Havilland Rd $1.389
new listing, gone, already sold it!


  the best condo at Canaan Close

privacy, a gated community

2 acres, 5 beds, pool, new price


great value, pristine

  1094 Ponus Ridge $2.08
reduced 20%, wow price!!!


The Willis Mills House, 1956
gone, two offers. rented it!!
(another modern coming on this week, email for pictures)

shingle style and great pool


227 Lambert Road  $4.780
a romantic estate, new price!


gone, rented both long-term

gone, rented both long-term

video tour by Susan Engel
Friends,

How's the market? Everybody is asking. First, some data.

20 houses were sold in April, up from 15 and the most in April since 2007. It allowed us to catch up to where we were last year. Its been a late Spring market.

After 4 months we have 51 sales versus 49. We are not in a recession. This is solid sales volume. 

The average sale price decreased 14% since this time last year, down from $2.228 million to $1.908 million. This is a result of more sales at the low end of the market. 

We have had zero sales over $4 million this year. Zero. That part of the market is struggling. Last year we posted 3 super-sales in the first 4 months. Sales at $11 .7 million and $5.1 million were attributed to large sub-dividable lots while the $4.2 million sale was a beautiful newer home on 4 acres. Instead, this year we've seen 7 sales between $3.0 and $3.75 million, up from 2 at this time last year.


New Canaan single family home inventory has increased 37% from 260 to 332. As of the writing of this market report two weeks later that total has climbed to 347. We had predicted a June peak of 370 in our February Market Report and we stand by the prediction because pending sales are down 41% from where they were last year year. Instead of looking forward to 61 sales in the next two months we are on track to sell only 36.


Let's break it down...
  • Fairfield County Sales: The number of sales is up 10% across the county with four out of six town posting big gains. Wilton is flat for the year with 43 sales and New Canaan is only up 4.1%. Prices are flat everywhere with no town posting a change of more than 5.6%. 
  • Fairfield County Inventory is up only 4.6% with the only large gains being posted in New Canaan (+21%) and Wilton (13%) While a 4.6% increase does not sound alarming, it is an 8.6% increase in inventory over 2 years which translates to nearly 500 houses. Expect this increase in inventory to have a lagging effect.
  • New Canaan Pending Sales: is our best forward-looking indicator. Looking at the first quarter we saw a 21% decrease in Pending Sales from 43 to 34. That number should be rising to 61. Looking only at the month of April we saw a 37% decline in Pendings which brought us to a four month decline of 41%. This is concerning and something to watch. 
Below is a link to the New Canaan May Market Report. If you would like to discuss the report, or if you have any other questions, feel free to contact us at 203-247-4700 (JE) or 203-247-5999 (SE) 

Best regards,          

John and Susan

The inventory is spread across all segments of the market, geographically distributed across all prices, in every style.

20 sales this month, and 51 for the year.  Better than 2015
We will see sales volume peaking at normal levels of $60-$70 million per month in June and July again.

Is it surprising that we see normal levels: 120-300?
Five years ago we ranged from 141 to 289 days.

The absorption rate shows normal house sales rates (243 per year) but an excessive number of listings. Five years ago the graph peaked twice at 15 months.

Around 94% is normal. The divergence indicates a buyer's market where seller's are chasing offers.


Susan admires the wallpaper at the Noyes-Graff House


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