Election Pause? The Engel Team's Market Report for Connecticut, November 2018

Westport, a little less expensive at $1.33mm, suffers a little bit less, volume down 9% in October and 2% for the year with prices down only 7% for the year.  Wilton where the average house is still under $800k (and condos under $400k), is seeing prices rise 4% (and 13%) for the year despite inventory levels rising 14% (and 33%) Rowayton sees inventory up 13%, prices and volume down. The median closing price fell 28% to $950,000 and the average condo is now only $316,000, down from $1.44 million. Greenwich, Wilton, Westport, Darien and New Canaan Median Prices over 5 years Greenwich had a soft October, but annual volume, prices and inventory are consistent with last year, 419 now for sale and 268 sold. Old Greenwich is up both in October and for the year, reversing a 5-year decline in volume that declined from 96 to only 60 sales in the previous 5 years. Now, sales are back to 70. Riverside is up in October, flat for the year, with fairly consistent volume for 8 years. Cos Cob prices and volume are up for the year, not surprising where the average home is $1.62 million, over $600,000 less than prices in Riverside and Old Greenwich.  Stamford and Norwalk Median Prices  Stamford and Norwalk are trending similarly. Down for the month, but flat for the year. Stamford shows 2 years of consistent sales volume and prices for both houses & condos. Houses remain at $580k, condos at $348k Norwalk shows average house prices holding at $613k while condos slip 6% to $280k despite a huge drop in inventory there of 34%

Hilltop Luxury Under Construction $4.8mm Classic cape with barns & river views (call) Elegant awesome: 507 Silvermine $4.18mm Striking: 269 Dan's Highway $2.3mm Current Listings of the Engel Team: 61 Sturbridge Hill, New Canaan $4.8mm 507 Silvermine Road, New Canaan $4.2mm 27 Rippowam Road, New Canaan $3.2mm 269 Dans Highway (VIDEO) $2.3mm 276 Park Street, New Canaan $1.4mm 921 North Wilton Rd, New Canaan $1.3mmCanaan Close #7 (VIDEO) $1.3mm  309 Park Street (VIDEO) $1.2mm  45 Sunrise Avenue, New Canaan $995k  65 Comstock Hill Ave, Norwalk $995k  88 South Avenue, (VIDEO) $799k  854 North Wilton Road, New Canaan $10k309 Park Street New Canaan $7800/mo 45 Sunrise Avenue, New Canaan $3500/mo

The Engel Team  John Engel, Susan Engel, Melissa Engel And Stephanie Sullivan  Licensed in Connecticut 183 Elm Street, New Canaan, CT 06840  c: 203.858.0266 o: 203.966.7800  EngelTeam@halstead.com  view my listings

Engel Team Market Report for Fairfield County Through August 31, 2018

Friends! Find out the state of Connecticut real estate by clicking on the links to the right. Of note:  * New Canaan July closings rebounded 7% August closings from 18 to 26, a 44% gain. * New Canaan annual $ volume was down 16%, now down 9.2%. Inventory up to 313.    * Rowayton closings down 55% Median price down 32% this year from $1.31mm to $885k  * Rowayton condo median down 77% to 316k * Greenwich closings up 39% in July, up 7% in August, up 3% for the year. Median up 3%  * Greenwich condo sales down 11% for the year, condo average down 3% to $893,527 * Stamford up in July, down 27% in August, flat for the year. Average and median $ level.  * Norwalk steady for July, August and 8 mos. * Norwalk condo inventory fell way off, 25.2% * Only Greenwich and Norwalk saw both median price & number of closings increase.  * New Canaan, Rowayton, Weston and Westport declined in closings and median $. * The most expensive towns (median $): Greenwich $1,850,000, up from $1,797,500 Darien $1,440,000, up from $1,400,000 (3%) New Canaan $1,380,000 down from $1.445 Westport $1,247,500 down from $1,340,500 Mortgage Rates Fall for Second Straight Week 30-year mortgage rates averaged 4.53% for the week ending August 16th, down from 4.59% the prior week. Rates have remained within a narrow range over the past few months, despite rising inflation data. One year ago rates were averaging 3.89% What Will Happen In the Next Year? If interest rates rise by .85 percentage points in the next year (using the average forecasts of Freddie, Fannie and the Mortgage Bankers Association) and housing prices rise only 2.6% then a typical mortgage payment will rise 13.3% from $804 to $910.  What Would Be the Effect on Real Estate Sales? According to a recent survey by Redfin, 21% of respondents said rates passing 5% would increase the urgency to buy a home, 27% would slow their search to see if rates come back down, and 6% said they would cancel their search altogether because of rising rates. 38% of respondents cited high taxes as their greatest concern. 77% expect home prices in their area to rise in the coming year. However, according to Sam Khater, deputy chief economist at CoreLogic, "If you look at the relationship between [mortgage] rates and [home] sales and home prices , the relationship is almost zero. That's shocking to most people. Even real estate people and finance people, they don't understand that." The first Engel video...and still my favorite: The video for 1380 Ponus Ridge $2,500,000 the video for 85 Carter Street    $1,399,000 the video for 88 South Avenue    $799,000 Engel Associates current listings: 61 Sturbridge Hill, New Canaan $4.8mm 507 Silvermine Road, New Canaan  (call) 27 Rippowam Road, New Canaan $3.2mm 1380 Ponus Ridge (VIDEO) $2.5mm 269 Dans Highway (VIDEO) $2.3mm 15 Richmond Hill (VIDEO) $2.3mm 276 Park Street, New Canaan $1.4mm 921 North Wilton Rd, New Canaan $1.3mm 289 New Norwalk Rd #7 (VIDEO) $1.3mm 309 Park Street (VIDEO) $1.2mm 474 Main Street, New Canaan $1.1mm 45 Sunrise Avenue, New Canaan $995k 65 Comstock Hill Ave, Norwalk $995k 88 South Avenue, New Canaan $799k 131 River Street, (VIDEO) $799k 109 Forest Street #14 New Canaan $739k 113 Locust Avenue (VIDEO) $699k 151d Heritage Hill Road New Canaan $435k 854 North Wilton Road, New Canaan $10k 309 Park Street New Canaan $7800 474 Main Street New Canaan $7200 113 Locust Ave New Canaan $4000 88 Heritage Hill Road New Canaan $2200 John Engel along with Susan Engel and now Melissa Engel and Stephanie Sullivan are Team Engel Associates at Halstead  Licensed in Connecticut 203-966-7800 203-247-4700 jengel@halstead.com view my listings

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Chairman's View: Improve our Planning for Town Building Maintenance (Oct 18, 2018)

Chairman’s View: Improve our planning for Town building maintenance

OCTOBER 18, 2018 BY NEW CANAAN ADVERTISER

New Canaan Town Council Chairman John Engel’s weekly guest column. New Canaan Town Council Chairman John Engel

First, let’s talk about the 100-point Pavement Condition Index (PCI). When a road scores above 86% PCI it’s excellent, requiring only corrective maintenance: crack sealing at about a $1 per square yard. Between 85% and 75% PCI a road is “good” and requires micro-thin overlays and cape seals at approximately $5 per square meter. When a road falls below 75% the road shouldn’t merely be patched, it must be repaved or reconstructed at a price of between $22 and $60 per square yard. “Very good” roads should be maintained for minimal investment and stretched to over 30 years of life.

In 2003, New Canaan’s roads scored 77% and in danger of needing reconstruction. Our Public Works department presented a 20-year plan in order to get our score back to 85% with the greatest efficiency. Unfortunately, between 2004 and 2008 the price of asphalt rose with the price of oil from $50 to $92 per ton and even with steady investment New Canaan’s average pavement quality declined to 74% below which roads need complete rebuilding.

And yet every year we challenge Tiger Mann, the head of Public Works, with questions designed to cut that road budget. Every year he patiently explains the math behind our most efficient system to get the Pavement Condition Index (PCI) from a score of 74% in 2009 to a score that is currently 81%. Every year our roads naturally deteriorate 2.5%. If we spend $2 million then the road quality stays about the same. Spending $2.5 million per year has allowed our PCI to rise about a half-point per year toward that goal. The Eversource road-paving investment amounts to about $3 million over five years and allows us to finish our 20-year plan in about 18 years, hopefully by 2021.

We have not managed the maintenance of our buildings with the same discipline and consistency we have applied toward our roads. This has caused some of us on Town Council to ask the obvious question, “Can we put together a building maintenance program, consistently funded at $1 to $2 million per year, that allows us to chip away at our $20 to $40 million obligation to repair and restore the 56 buildings that the Town owns?” 

First, 50% of that budget is Waveny House. If we are serious about Waveny we must wrap our heads around $1 million per year for the next 20 years. The second step is to identify the buildings that the Town should not own. Legally protect (with conservation easements) and then sell those buildings which are inefficient and inappropriate for a town to own and maintain: the Vine Cottage, the Police Station, the Outback, the Irwin House and Irwin Barn, the Gores Pavilion and the New Canaan Playhouse head that list.