The April Market Report: We Can't Blame the Winter Weather for the Slow Start

https://www.halstead.com/sale/ct/new-canaan/1094-ponus-ridge/house/99099374# Pride's Crossing #9  $888,000 1 of 8 condos under $1mm 29 Maple Street condo  $899,000 as featured in the NYTimes  108 Toby's Lane $1.325    private riverfront retreat 213 Old Stamford Rd $1.499 near South School & Waveny  289 New Norwalk Rd   $1.68   the finest at Canaan Close 16 Ravenglass Dr.   $1.649 privacy, a gated community 76 Sturbridge Hill Rd $1.725 great value with pool  106 Logan Road   $1.799 great value, pristine  1094 Ponus Ridge $2.22 open house this weekend 1380 Ponus Ridge   $2.55 spacious, restored, bright 242 Wahackme Rd.   $3.40 shingle style Nantucket  227 Lambert Road    $5.15 a romantic country estate 1654 Ponus Rdg. rental $5900 tour the party barn on Lambert 1271 Oenoke Rdg.   rental $4000 tour this lakeside colonial  tour the Evans House of 1960 video tour by Susan Engel Friends, Several data points jump out at us this month:  First, every body is talking about the ever-increasing inventory levels. New Canaan began March with 270 houses on the market versus 192 at this time last year, up 40.6%.  We begin April with 299 houses versus 222 a year ago, still up 34.7% New Canaan Active Listings and Sales over Two Years Analyzing the last 25 houses listed, we saw 16 of them last year and 9 of them are new to the market. That leads us to think we are going to burst through last year's June 15 peak of 329 and could see as many as 370.  Those houses that came back on the market this year returned with price decreases that averaged 5.25% Here is the graph for Darien over the last 24 months. With only half the inventory they are selling the same volume and the same median price. And, they sell a lot faster. Darien Active Listings and Sales over Two Years Let's break it down... Fairfield County Sales: Once again its a mixed bag across the county. Sales are up 5% and dollar volume is up 5% as a whole with Darien and Stamford showing the most strength. Wilton continues to be soft with the average home ($925k) selling for 50% of that of Darien ($1.95m) and New Canaan ($1.93m). New Canaan Sales decreased 8.8% in the first quarter. That's not bad considering the psychological effect of exceptionally high inventory levels. Buyers are sitting back waiting for more inventory. We are all asking is this just a late start to the season?  New Canaan Pending Sales: is our best forward-looking indicator. Looking at the first quarter we saw a 21% decrease in Pending Sales from 43 to 34. Looking only at the month of March we saw a 17% decline. Again, this could be an indicator that the season starts later and  New Canaan Inventory:  In January inventory was up 47 houses. In February it was up 62 year over year. A whopping 33 houses came on the market in the first half of February and 24 out of 33 were new listings we did not see on the market last year. That trend continued in March with 76 new listings (versus 64 in March 20150 up 18%. We think inventory will peak at 370 single family houses.  Darien Inventory is only 57% that of New Canaan. Our sister town had only 176 active listings on March 15, a number up 21.4% from 2015. That is why CMLS calculates that Darien has 13 months of inventory while New Canaan has 31 months.  Condos:  Solid. 4 sales every month, 12 last quarter, 43 per year. Average price has decreased a little in the past year from $906,550 to $870,000 and now $776,917, reflecting continued demand for affordable housing in town. This is fresh inventory, turning over on average in 100 days. Of the 8 new condo listings in February we saw only 3 of them last year. In March we saw 15 new condos and only 5 were listings we saw last year, the rest were fresh and several of them are pending after a few days. Timing:  We've told you that nationally 66% of homes listed in February sell within 90 days, making it the best month to list. But, we found in New Canaan buyers typically wait until late April and May to make a deal that will close in June and July. We also learned that the spread between asking price and sale price is larger when snow is on the ground, making January the best time to make an offer, and April the best time to sell. Expect the spread to tighten back up to 96%   We told you interest rates would rise this Spring. Wow, were we wrong! We predicted that the psychological impact of rising rates would stimulate a sense of urgency and drive more buying energy into the first quarter. Janet Yellen put on the brakes. Now its shaping up to look more like last Spring with most of the deal-making occurring late Spring. Predictions have cooled from 2.7% growth in prices in 2016 to plus or minus 1%. Below is a link to the New Canaan April Market Report. If you would like to discuss the report, or if you have any other questions, feel free to contact us at 203-247-4700 (JE) or 203-247-5999 (SE).   Best regards,           John and Susan 29 Maple Street condo $875,000  The New York Times was looking last month for something cute under $1 million in New Canaan. They picked this.You'll see it featured this month and then no doubt it will be gone. Trulia says its the most clicked listing in town. Pride's Crossing #9   (condominium) - $888,000   A beautiful brick end unit at Pride's Crossing means twice as many windows, double the light. The garage is a few steps from the patio. The basement is finished. New on the market with photos of the freshly painted interior. 108 Toby's Lane  -  $1,325,000 One of the few examples under $1.5 million on the West side, this immaculate house offers privacy, a play yard and a view of the river. New on the market in March. 213 Old Stamford Road - $1,499,000  NEW PRICE REDUCTION. It always starts with location and this one has it: the Old Studio Road neighborhood near schools, Waveny and town. Totally renovated top to bottom with a gourmet kitchen in today's neutral colors.  289 New Norwalk Rd (condominium) - $1,680,000 Very private townhouse in the newer portion of Canaan Close features 3 large bedrooms (with ensuite baths) and 6 private balconies or decks overlooking the 5 Mile River 16 Ravenglass Road (Stamford) - $1,649,000   NEW Lakeside, set in 74 acres with pool and tennis court, this charming Hampton Shingle style home exudes relaxation. Sit on your generous wrap-around verandah looking across sweeping lawns to the lake. This 1 year old home in an exclusive gated community minutes from an historic tavern, country market, country club and the Merritt. 44 Benedict Hill - $1,799,000  The Evans House Featured by Curbed magazine last month as their House of the Day, one of the most striking and pure examples of midcentury modern architecture in the world. See the video of architect James Evans discussing it here. 1094 Ponus Ridge  - $2,222,000   REDUCED from $2,550,000. You say you want charm and character from the 1930's, but updated. You want a "football field" flat lawn. And, you'd like to live on Ponus. This is the house for you.  See the video of 1094 Ponus's sunset views here.  See Susan Engel give a tour of this house here. 1380 Ponus Ridge Road - $2,550,000 Willis Mills House The iconic Willis Mills Home of 1955, an orderly 4,200-foot grid of glass and red- wood sited on a tree-lined incline, is the height of the International Style. A double- height, glass-ringed living room is cantilevered out from the hillside, offset by diagonal balconies and terraces. The renovated kitchen and lower level by Bassam/Fellows compliments Mills' initial serene statement. 242 Wahackme Rd - $3,400,000 Maybe the best poolside entertaining in New Canaan. Consider it has the grandest soaring front foyer. This is an important house, showing like new, not to be missed.  1083 Smith Ridge - $4.200,000  Yes, its gone. SOLD to the nicest family you ever met. But you can still watch the video here:  See the video of 1083 Smith Ridge 227 Lambert Road -  $5,150,000   The quintessential family compound on the banks of the Five Mile River includes a gracious main house with river views, a separate studio/office, a guest house and the expertly designed, award-winning party barn. The peaceful, 2.6 acre property is bordered by 2.4 acres of Land Trust and the river. See the video of 227 Lambert Road here.

click here for the market report \

The March Report: 270 Single Family Listings and Rising...

When Do Deals Get Made in New Canaan?  Pride's Crossing #9  $888,000  new listing TODAY.  It won't last. 29 Maple Street condo    $899,000    now staged and looking great     108 Toby's Lane     $1,350,000    returning to the MLS in March 213 Old Stamford Rd.    $1,499,000 reduced $59,000. since last month   474 Main Street     $1400,000   or available for rent at $7500/month         309 Park St.     $1,650,000   or available for rent at $8000/month  289 New Norwalk Rd   $1,680,000   76 Sturbridge Hill  $1,725,000 not yet on the MLS, coming soon  106 Logan Road   $1,799,000 not yet on the MLS, coming soon   44 Benedict Hill Road  $1,799,000     1094 Ponus Ridge    $2,222,000 1380 Ponus Ridge Rd    $2,550,000 or available to rent at $8000 /month 242 Wahackme Rd     $3,400,000 1083 Smith Ridge     $4.200,000     227 Lambert Road    $5,150,000  474 Main Street  rental  $7500  1654 Ponus Ridge  rental  $5900 1271 Oenoke Ridge  rental  $4000  Hi Neighbor, We really struggled with this report. On the one hand area sales are looking good with strength in the $3 million range raising our January numbers. On the other hand the loss of GE, stock market volatility, an uncertain Fed, an increasingly uncertain election and State budget woes have translated into a wait-and-see attitude among buyers. With interest rates dropping, record high levels of inventory with more coming on every day, buyers are waiting and prices are dropping. Area Sales: Once again its a mixed bag across the county. Sales are up 1% and dollar volume down 1% with Darien, New Canaan and Stamford showing strength and Wilton and Westport soft.  New Canaan market: We take note of the precipitous 44% decrease in Pending Sales from 25 to 14. It illustrates perfectly the anxiety buyers are feeling this month. Add only 6 more Pending Sales for the trailing 30 days (ending today) and you see that this is an awful start to 2016. New Canaan Inventory:  In January inventory was up 47 houses. In February it's up 62 year over year. A whopping 33 houses came on the market in the first half of February alone. Surprisingly 24 out of 33 are new listings we did not see on the market last year. Unsold inventory from the end of last year has yet to re-emerge. Condos:  Solid. 4 sales every month, 12 last quarter, 43 per year. Average price remains $870,000, reflecting continued demand for affordable housing in town. This is fresh inventory, turning over on average in 100 days. Of the 8 new listings this month we saw only 3 of them last year.  Timing:  We've told you 66% of homes listed in February sell within 90 days, making it the best month to list nationally. But, we found in New Canaan buyers typically wait until May and June to make a deal, as shown in the chart above. However, what you didn't know is the spread between asking price and sale price is larger when snow is on the ground, making January the best time to make an offer:   We told you interest rates will rise this Spring. Wow, were we wrong! We predicted the psychological impact of rising rates would stimulate a sense of urgency and drive more energy into the first quarter. Now its shaping up to look more like last Spring with most of the deal-making occurring late Spring. Predictions have cooled from 2.7% growth in prices in 2016 to plus or minus 1%. Below is a link to the New Canaan February Market Report, and the Connecticut 4th Quarter Report, each of which includes detailed information on the market this past year.  If you would like to discuss the report, or if you have any other questions, feel free to contact us at 203-247-4700 (JE) or 203-247-5999 (SE).   Best regards,           John and Susan   29 Maple Street condo $899,000  The New York Times was looking last week for something cute under $1 million in New Canaan. They picked this. You'll see it featured this month and then no doubt it will be gone. Get in to see it this Sunday, Open House 1-3pm Pride's Crossing #9   condominium- $888,000   A beautiful brick end unit at Pride's Crossing means twice as many windows, double the light. The garage is a few steps from the patio. The basement is finished. New on the market TODAY with photos of the freshly painted interior. 108 Toby's Lane  -  $1,350,000 One of the few examples under $1.5 million on the West side, this immaculate house offers privacy, a play yard and a view of the river. Coming back on the market in March. 474 Main St. condominium - $1,400,000 A 2014 built condo, top of the line kitchen, 2 garages, Geothermal heating & cooling, with views of a forest and pond with flat sidewalks into town. NEW this week. 213 Old Stamford Road - $1,499,000  NEW PRICE REDUCTION. It always starts with location and this one has it: the Old Studio Road neighborhood near schools, Waveny and town. Totally renovated top to bottom with a gourmet kitchen in today's neutral colors.  309 Park St. townhouses - $1,650,000 NEW construction along Mead Park.  Two freestanding luxury houses share only the driveway. The front house has a first floor master. The rear house borders the park. The 4th bedroom is optional. Completion in one month. 289 New Norwalk Rd condominium - $1,680,000 Very private townhouse in the newer portion of Canaan Close features 3 large bedrooms (with ensuite baths) and 6 private balconies or decks overlooking the 5 Mile River 44 Benedict Hill - $1,799,000  The Evans House Featured by Curbed magazine last week as their House of the Day, one of the most striking and pure examples of midcentury modern architecture in the world. See the video of architect James Evans discussing it here. 1094 Ponus Ridge  - $2,222,000   REDUCED from $2,550,000. You say you want charm and character from the 1930's, but updated. You want a "football field" flat lawn. And, you'd like to live on Ponus. This is the house for you. See the video of 1094 Ponus's sunset views here. 1380 Ponus Ridge Road - $2,550,000 Willis Mills House The iconic Willis Mills Home of 1955, an orderly 4,200-foot grid of glass and red- wood sited on a tree-lined incline, is the height of the International Style. A double- height, glass-ringed living room is cantilevered out from the hillside, offset by diagonal balconies and terraces. The renovated kitchen and lower level by Bassam/Fellows compliments Mills' initial serene statement. 242 Wahackme Rd - $3,400,000 Maybe the best poolside entertaining in New Canaan. Consider it has the grandest soaring front foyer. This is an important house, showing like new, not to be missed.  1083 Smith Ridge - $4.200,000  Everybody who enters this house says "Wow" Four levels of beautifully finished space & high ceilings, includes a gourmet eat-in kitchen, adjoining family room & lower level spa opening to the outdoor pool. A paneled library, with fireplace, terrace & alcove is a godsend. See the video of 1083 Smith Ridge.   227 Lambert Road -  $5,150,000   The quintessential family compound on the banks of the Five Mile River includes a gracious main house with river views, a separate studio/office, a guest house and the expertly designed, award-winning party barn. The peaceful, 2.6 acre property is bordered by 2.4 acres of Land Trust and the river. See the video of 227 Lambert Road here.

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Video Walkthrough Tour of 1094 Ponus Ridge in New Canaan

click on the image to see the video

231 Reasons To Buy New Canaan - the February Market Report

Last week at the Rotary Club we had a social media expert address the group. She told us to start off the subject line with a number to really get the reader's attention. So, here goes the February Market Report with "231 Reasons to Buy in New Canaan". Why 231 Reasons? Because that is how many single family homes we had listed in New Canaan on Feb. 1 this year, exactly 62 more than we had on the market one year ago.

We really struggled with this report. On the one hand area sales are looking good with strength in the $3 million range raising our January numbers. On the other hand the loss of GE, stock market volatility, an uncertain Fed, an increasingly uncertain election and State budget woes have translated into a wait-and-see attitude among buyers. With interest rates dropping, record high levels of inventory with more coming on every day, buyers are waiting and prices are dropping.

• Area Sales: Once again its a mixed bag across the county. Sales are up 1% and dollar volume down 1% with Darien, New Canaan and Stamford showing strength and Wilton and Westport soft. 
• New Canaan market: We take note of the precipitous 44% decrease in Pending Sales from 25 to 14. It illustrates perfectly the anxiety buyers are feeling this month. Add only 6 more Pending Sales for the trailing 30 days (ending today) and you see that this is an awful start to 2016.
• New Canaan Inventory:  In January inventory was up 47 houses. In February it's up 62 year over year. A whopping 33 houses came on the market in the first half of February alone. Surprisingly 24 out of 33 are new listings we did not see on the market last year. Unsold inventory from the end of last year has yet to re-emerge.
• Condos:  Solid. 4 sales every month, 12 last quarter, 43 per year. Average price remains $870,000, reflecting continued demand for affordable housing in town. This is fresh inventory, turning over on average in 100 days. Of the 8 new listings this month we saw only 3 of them last year. 
• Timing:  We've told you 66% of homes listed in February sell within 90 days, making it the best month to list nationally. But, we found in New Canaan buyers typically wait until May and June to make a deal, as shown in the chart above. However, what you didn't know is the spread between asking price and sale price is larger when snow is on the ground, making January the best time to make an offer:

 

We told you interest rates will rise this Spring. Wow, were we wrong! We predicted the psychological impact of rising rates would stimulate a sense of urgency and drive more energy into the first quarter. Now its shaping up to look more like last Spring with most of the deal-making occurring late Spring. Predictions have cooled from 2.7% growth in prices in 2016 to plus or minus 1%.

Below is a link to the New Canaan February Market Report, and the Connecticut 4th Quarter Report, each of which includes detailed information on the market this past year.  If you would like to discuss the report, or if you have any other questions, feel free to contact us at 203-247-4700 (JE) or 203-247-5999 (SE).  

Best regards,          

John and Susan

New to the Market: 106 Logan Road for $1,799,000

This beautifully renovated 1978 Colonial on Logan Road will be coming on the market next month, March 2016. Enter through a large Entry Foyer to either the large Living Room or a Paneled Library. Featuring a recent Kitchen by Deane, an oversize Family Room with brick Fireplace, an elegant Dining Room with French Doors to the oversized mahogany deck in back. Upstairs there are 4 bedrooms including a Master Suite with walk-in closet, a sitting area and a balcony. Take note of the very fresh, dry and spacious finished lower level with second Family room, home office and wine cellar. While the house is quite fresh and updated, we think the buyer of this house will seek it out with a focus on the land and the exceptional setting. Sited at the end of a long driveway this house is sited on 4.6 acres of privacy with views of the private pond and bordered by 20 acres of Land Trust property. This property is for those who will appreciate getting back to nature with its magnificent specimen trees, perennial gardens and the peace and quiet they give us.

New to the Market: 76 Sturbridge Hill Road

76 Sturbridge Hill is coming on the market next week. Here are some sneak-peak photos of the freshly-painted house in snow last week. Looking good!

And here are some drone shots we took last Fall, 2015 just as we were closing the pool. Note that the house is still yellow in these pictures. It has since been painted a crisp white. You can tell from these aerial shots that the house is well-protected from the sun and wind with mature trees, and the pool area is exceptionally private. Mr. Coudert is the original owner, having purchased the property from builder Ed White while the house was under construction in 1978. Listed for $1,725,000. please call or text John 203-247-4700 or Susan 203-247-5999 for an appointment to see it.